Russian ships leave Syrian base amid doubts about future

Russian warships appear to have temporarily abandoned their main port in Syria, satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify show, amid continuing uncertainty over Moscow’s military future in the country after the fall of its ally, Bashar Al -Assad.

Images taken by Maxar on December 10 show that some ships have left the Tartous naval base since Sunday and are currently offshore in the Mediterranean Sea.

Meanwhile, other photographs taken on the same day show activity continuing at Russia’s main air base in Syria, Khmeimim, with planes clearly visible on the tarmac.

On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would engage in talks with the incoming authorities about Russia’s future military presence.

“Everything is now being done to contact those involved in ensuring security and of course our army is also taking all necessary precautions,” he told reporters in Moscow.

He previously warned that it was “premature” to speculate about the future of the bases.

“You know that, of course, we maintain contacts with those who control the situation in Syria now. This is necessary because we have our bases there and our diplomatic office (embassy). And, of course, we guarantee the security of our facilities. They are of the utmost importance,” he told reporters.

The Tartous naval facility houses elements of the Black Sea Fleet and is Russia’s only repair and replenishment center in the Mediterranean. Established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, it was expanded and modernized by Russia in 2012, when the Kremlin began increasing its support for President Assad’s regime.

It allows Russian ships to remain in the Mediterranean without having to return to Black Sea ports through the Turkish Strait. It is also a deep-water port, meaning it can host submarines from Moscow’s nuclear fleet, according to the US Naval Institute.

New satellite images show Moscow has at least temporarily moved its ships out of port, with two guided-missile frigates moored about 13 kilometers (eight miles) off the Syrian coast. It is unclear where the rest of the fleet, depicted in images above, is currently located.

It is also unclear whether his departure is part of a permanent withdrawal from Tartous. In recent weeks, satellite images have repeatedly shown warships entering and leaving the port.

Mike Plunkett of the open-source intelligence organization Janes noted that the Russian moves appeared to have been “made to ensure that their ships are not vulnerable to attack.”

“It is unknown whether they are concerned about the attack by Syrian rebels or the collateral damage of any Israeli attack on Syrian assets in Tartus,” he added.

Frederik Van Lokeren, a former Belgian navy captain and analyst, told BBC Verify that it appeared the Russian vessels were now in a holding pattern as Moscow deliberated its next move.

“They’re effectively in limbo right now, because they don’t really know what’s going to happen,” Van Lokeren said.

“Obviously, given that they remain there, it appears that Russia is not willing to withdraw all of its warships from the area yet, which could be an indication that they are negotiating with regional partners to see where they can redeploy these vessels.”

Analysts have speculated that if Russia is forced to close the Tartous naval facilities, it could redeploy its presence to Tobruk in Libya. The region is controlled by Kremlin-backed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and is already home to some Russian air bases.

But withdrawing from Tartous would be immensely costly, and Van Lokeren noted that the move would also bring Russian ships closer to NATO bases, making them easier to track. For now, he said, there are no indications that Russia is moving the naval assets needed to remove the equipment from Tartous.

Meanwhile, since 2015 the Khmeimim air base has become a key part of Russia’s operations in the Middle East and Africa. It has been used to launch devastating airstrikes on cities across Syria in support of the Assad regime, as well as transport military contractors to Africa.

Satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify showed at least two large aircraft, identified by Janes as IL-76 transport planes, still parked on the base’s runway on December 10. In the images you can also see helicopters at the base.

Janes also notes that the air defense systems deployed at the site are still visible in the northwest corner of the image.

Dara Massicot, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Sunday on imminently. .

“When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they conducted almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before the base expansion,” he wrote in X.

“A change that means a major evacuation will be clear,” he added.

Despite the current pattern of containment that Russian forces appear to be displaying, the fall of the Assad regime represents a serious blow to the Kremlin’s ambitions in the region. During a visit to the Khmeimim air base in 2017, President Vladimir Putin made clear that he intended Moscow’s presence to be a long-term project.

Reflecting on the situation, an influential pro-Kremlin military blogger, Rybar, warned on Telegram that Russia’s power projection exercise in the region was in grave danger.

“Russia’s military presence in the Middle East region hangs by a thread,” he concluded.

Additional reporting by Paul Cusiac. Graphics by Mark Edwards.