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“There are only two of us left among the leaders. Now, it’s me and Vladimir Putin. ” That was the dishonorable decision of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan last week.
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump may oppose the positions of the Turkish president in the world. At the regional level, however, Erdoğan has the best appeal of being one of the two most powerful leaders who are changing the Middle East. His hated opponent, Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, is another.
Erdogan’s current pride comes from his work in Syria. Turkey was the only regional power to put its full weight behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that overthrew the Assad regime. Ibrahim Kalin, the head of the Turkish intelligence service, visit Damascus days after HTS took over.
Erdoğan has long wished to rebuild Turkish power across the territories of the former Ottoman Empire. For him, toppling Assad opens a new avenue of regional influence. It also has the potential to home payment – to weaken the Syrian Kurds, ease the Turkish refugee problem and help his commitment to remain president after 2028.
Turkey’s ties to Islamist groups such as HTS and the Muslim Brotherhood are seen as a major threat by Israel and conservative Gulf governments. Israel has advanced to destroy Syria’s military power, attack its navy and air force and capture areas beyond the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since 1967.
The Israeli government described its measures as precautionary and defensive. But Netanyahu, like Erdoğan, sees opportunities ahead. Speaking last week, he said: “Something tectonic has happened here, an earthquake that has not happened in the hundred years since the Sykes-Picot agreement.” That statement of the 1916 agreement between Britain and France that divided the Ottoman Empire sounds important. With the Middle East in turmoil, advocates of Greater Israel see an opportunity to redraw the region’s borders. Aluf Benn of Haaretz he writes that Netanyahu “seems to be seeking a legacy as the leader who expanded Israel’s borders after 50 years of backsliding”.
The immigration movement, which is well represented in Netanyahu’s coalition government, is pushing for Israel to annex parts of Gaza. The incoming Trump administration could give Israel the green light to annex parts of the occupied West Bank. And the “temporary” occupation of the Syrian state may prove to be permanent.
Going forward, Netanyahu will see an opportunity to have a final reckoning with Iran. The Islamic Republic is at its weakest in decades. It faces domestic opposition and will not be swayed by the fall of the Syrian dictatorship. Tehran has seen its allies – Hamas, Hizbollah and now Assad – crushed.
Iran may respond to the loss of its regional proxies with an accelerated pace of acquiring nuclear weapons. But that would cause the Israelis to attack. After the Netanyahu government’s successful offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon — a campaign the Biden administration warned against — Israelis are feeling confident, strong.
In the past year, Israel has shown its ability to fight on many fronts at the same time – including Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran and now Syria. The Israelis are also the only nuclear armed power in the region, and currently, have the full support of the US.
Netanyahu’s chances of going down in history as a successful leader seemed slim after the disaster of the October 7 attack by Hamas. There are serious controversies at home and abroad, he is currently accused of corruption in Israel.
Like Erdoğan, Netanyahu is a ruthless political survivor. Everyone first took power decades ago and sees himself as the man of the future. However, their dreams of dominating the regions have the same limitations. Israel and Turkey are non-Arab states in a large Arab region. There is no appetite in the Arab world for a revived Ottoman Empire. Israel remains an outside power in the Middle East, feared, distrusted and often hated.
Turkey and Israel also have too little of an economic base to really want to dominate the territories. The Turkish economy is being destroyed by inflation. For all its technological and military might, Israel is a small country of less than 10 million people.
The interests of Erdoğan and Netanyahu could easily clash in Syria. It risks becoming a battleground for rival regional governments because Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states also have interests at stake there.
Last week, while the Turks were enjoying the fall of Damascus and the Israelis were crushing the Syrian army, Saudi Arabia celebrated the victory of peace, being chosen as the host of the 2034 World Cup.
The Saudis and Gulf states probably feel more directly threatened by Turkey’s Islamist allies than Israel’s regional ambitions. But Riyadh knows that Israel’s attack on Gaza has alarmed much of the Arab world. Getting too close to Netanyahu to stop Erdoğan could be controversial, especially if the Israelis are hiding any prospect of a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Israel and Turkey have strong armies. But the Saudis, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have financial power. Whatever Riyadh decides to do could affect the Middle East more than the actions of Erdoğan and Netanyahu.
