Russia moves equipment into Syrian bases, satellite images show

Russia is moving a large amount of military equipment into Syria, signaling preparations for a partial withdrawal, analysts say.

Satellite images reveal a buildup of military vehicles at a Russian-controlled port and airbase in western Syria.

It also appears that transport planes have arrived and left the country in recent days.

BBC Verify has also geolocated videos showing extensive columns of Russian military trucks advancing north towards these bases.

The Institute for the Study of War suggests that this indicates preparations for a reduction or complete withdrawal of Russian forces.

The Washington-based think tank added that moving military vehicles to its bases may be a precautionary measure while Moscow negotiates with the new government in Damascus.

Russia had a significant military presence in Syria during Bashar al-Assad’s rule, helping him stay in power after the civil war broke out in 2011.

Its two most important bases are the port of Tartous, established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and later expanded and modernized by Russia in 2012, and the Hmeimim air base, which has been operational since 2015 and was used to launch attacks. flights throughout Syria. in support of Assad.

Both have become key strategic bases for Russia, giving it easier access to the Middle East, North Africa and the Mediterranean Sea.

However, the fall of Assad has raised doubts about Russia’s future presence in Syria. Moscow seeks to negotiate with the new regime.

On Monday, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said there had been no “final decisions” and that Russia was “in contact with representatives of the forces now controlling the situation in (Syria).”

BBC Verify has been monitoring activity at Hmeimim air base using satellite imagery from Planet Labs. There are signs of sustained activity, involving major military transport aircraft. Two large Antonov An-124 aircraft, which can be used to take assets out of Syria, were seen at the base on Friday. They left on Tuesday, but by Wednesday morning two large planes were back at the base.

Other images taken by Maxar Technologies on Sunday show dozens of military vehicles parked on the airfield near a Russian-made Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane, which could be used for evacuations.

BBC Verify tracked a large Russian Antonov An-124 since Tuesday on aircraft tracking website Flightradar24. Its publicly available tracker showed it over Russian airspace, traveling in the direction of Syria. It then disappeared from Flightradar24 off the Syrian coast, west of Hmeimim Air Base, likely because its public tracker was turned off. He can then be seen returning north six hours later.

David Heathcote, director of intelligence at McKenzie Intelligence, said the rapid collapse of the Assad government It meant that Russia was unlikely to have a plan to evacuate resources.

He described the activity at Hmeimim air base as “unusual”, suggesting that Russia was stockpiling some resources at the base and preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria.

Tayfun Ozberk, a former naval officer and defense analyst, agreed that the images indicated “the early stages of a Russian withdrawal from Syria, with clear signs of an air evacuation.”

“The presence of Il-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian ships in Tartous and the organized advance preparation of vehicles and equipment support this conclusion,” Ozberk said.

BBC Verify reported last week how The Russian warships had left the port of Tartus.and analysts suggested they were stationed in international waters for the time being.

These ships have not returned, but in recent days more than 100 military vehicles have arrived at the base, satellite images show.

Heathcote said it was likely vehicles were being prepared for evacuation, although it was unlikely to be immediate due to the absence of loading ramps and cranes.

Recent images also showed large columns of Russian vehicles moving, indicating that they have been redirected from other Russian outposts across the country.

BBC Verify geolocated the videos on a major road, suggesting they were heading north towards the bases.

An 80-second video published on X shows a long line of Russian vehicles, geolocated 30 kilometers south of Homs. Another video showed a column of Russian vehicles on the same road further south, 70 kilometers from Damascus.

“Russia is now withdrawing military units and equipment that were deployed in almost a hundred strongholds across the country before the fall of Damascus,” said Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar with the Syria program at the Middle East Institute.