Will Trudeau resign? Four paths that the Prime Minister of Canada could take

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future appears uncertain following the sudden resignation of his most senior member of his cabinet, once a close ally.

Chrystia Freeland, former deputy prime minister and finance minister, resigned from her positions on Monday with an open letter to Trudeau, outlining disagreements she had with him over spending and “the best path forward for Canada.”

These disagreements, he said, were underscored by incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian goods, tariffs that economists say could deal Canada a devastating economic blow.

Questions are now being raised in Parliament, including by some members of his own Liberal Party, about whether he is capable of leading at this critical juncture.

You are faced with some options about how to move forward.

Trudeau has been leader of the Liberal Party of Canada since 2013 and Prime Minister of Canada for just over nine years, since 2015.

According to the party’s statutes, the leader can resign at any time. If it takes effect immediately, an interim leader is appointed until party members can meet and vote on a new permanent leader.

Trudeau could also choose to remain in his position until the new leader is elected.

Once a new leader is named, Trudeau would have to relinquish his prime ministerial powers and hand them over to his successor.

Trudeau shows no signs that he will voluntarily resign anytime soon.

In an emergency meeting with his caucus following Freeland’s departure, Trudeau told his fellow Liberal MPs (including some who had directly asked him to resign) that he would take some time to reflect, according to multiple reports.

And in a Christmas speech to Liberal Party faithful on Tuesday, he acknowledged that politics comes with “great challenges” but said: “In difficult times, it is not the time to stop. It is the time to be ambitious and bold.”

Trudeau has been under pressure since the summer, with his approval ratings plunging and a series of special election losses in once-safe Liberal seats suggesting big problems for his party.

In October, he faced a small caucus revolt, in which 24 MPs signed a letter calling for his departure.

Polls indicate that if a federal election were held in Canada today, the official opposition Conservative Party would win a decisive victory.

Trudeau has endured despite these problems and has repeatedly promised to run again as Liberal leader in the next election.

So far, only 13 of 153 Liberal MPs have openly called for him to leave; almost half of them are not seeking re-election, according to CBC News tracking.

Still, according to the party’s statutes, the leader’s position can only be formally put to a vote by members after an electoral defeat.

The Conservatives, who are leading in opinion polls with a double-digit lead, have been trying for months to trigger an election by tabling a series of no-confidence votes in the House of Commons.

If a government loses a vote of confidence or a vote in the House, it is expected to resign or seek the dissolution of parliament, triggering a federal election.

The government needs the backing of a majority of parliament’s 338 members in a no-confidence motion. The Liberals are 17 seats away from that figure.

Conservative efforts failed after either the NDP or the Bloc Québécois endorsed the Liberals in exchange for support to advance their respective policy priorities.

With Parliament suspended for vacation on Tuesday, Trudeau will not face the threat of another confidence vote until at least the end of January.

On Monday, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh for the first time called on Trudeau to resign, making the Liberal grip on power appear increasingly shaky.

The NDP House leader told broadcaster CBC that his members would vote in favor of a no-confidence motion if the prime minister was still leader in the New Year.

One way Trudeau could avoid the vote is by proroguing parliament, essentially a suspension that would stop all proceedings, including debates and voting, without dissolving parliament.

While it is a routine part of parliamentary procedure, it is sometimes used by governments to buy time during a political crisis.

Trudeau last prorogued Parliament in August 2020, when his government faced an ethics scandal over its handling of a contract with a charity.

It was also used to avoid a vote of no confidence by Trudeau’s predecessor, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who prorogued parliament in December 2008 when federal opposition parties attempted to form a coalition government.

Parliament resumed in January 2009. By then the coalition had fallen apart, allowing Harper to remain in power.

Regardless of what Trudeau decides to do, an election is inevitable in the coming months.

Canada must hold its next election in October or sooner, and ultimately it may be voters who end up deciding its future.