In the face of turmoil, a defiant Trudeau holds out for now

It was one of the worst weeks of his political career, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was welcoming the season.

At the Liberal Party’s annual Christmas meeting, Trudeau put on a party face, despite having been blindsided the day before by the sudden resignation of one of his most trusted allies, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, just hours before she present an economic declaration in Parliament.

But even as some members of his own party called on him to leave, the prime minister struck a determined and defiant tone as he addressed the party faithful in his dark blue suit and tie.

He alluded to his “difficult” week, comparing it to a family fight.

He spoke of being “bold” and “ambitious” in the face of adversity, and made direct criticism of his political rival, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposition Conservative Party of Canada.

Pundits later commented that it sounded a lot like a campaign speech and that, despite the latest political turmoil, Trudeau appears to be digging in.

That stance did not change Friday, even after the leader of the country’s progressive New Democratic Party (NDP), Jagmeet Singh, said he would table a motion to topple Trudeau’s government in the new year. It was NDP support that kept the Liberals in power. An election now seems imminent.

So far, however, Trudeau has given no indication that he will resign anytime soon, although he reportedly told party colleagues he would take some time over the winter break to think about what to do.

Political observers say Trudeau has often displayed a defiant attitude when under pressure, something that has helped him weather a series of controversies in his nine years in power.

And he has often been underestimated, as when he won a majority government in 2015 at the age of 44, even though his political opponents portrayed him as something of a dilettante.

But as pressure mounts for him to resign, some of those same experts say he may need a new strategy.

When Trudeau first ran for prime minister, three words followed him: I’m just not ready.

That phrase was the slogan of an attack ad played repeatedly across the country as he attempted to unseat incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a conservative who had been in power since 2004.

It conveyed the common criticisms he faced at the time about his young age, his relative lack of experience and his winding path into politics.

Trudeau “wandered around” in his early life before becoming a theater professor in Vancouver, said Canadian historian Raymond Blake, seemingly isolated as the well-known and wealthy son of former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

But soon after entering politics, Trudeau adopted a fighting stance.

It’s a trait some say he learned from his father, known for his charismatic but combative leadership style, and famous for his “just look at me” catchphrase, which he flippantly said to a reporter at the height of a political crisis. crisis.

“His father had the image of being a really tough, very tough politician,” said Lawrence Martin, a veteran Canadian political columnist based in Washington, DC.

The younger Trudeau defied the odds by achieving a historic victory for his Liberal Party, taking it from third place in parliament to a majority mandate in his first federal election.

“This makes him feel like he can overcome big obstacles,” Martin said, adding that politically, Trudeau operates with “a huge amount of self-confidence.”

Trudeau’s path to power became bumpy once he took office, after becoming embroiled in a series of political scandals.

In her first term, Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould, the first Indigenous woman to hold the position, resigned over what she described as attempts at interference and “veiled threats” from senior government officials seeking legal favor for a company facing trial for corruption. .

While running for a second term in 2019, Trudeau’s re-election campaign was rocked by images that were released showing him as a younger man with brown face on at least three occasions.

And a year later, in 2020, Trudeau faced another ethics scandal involving a potentially major government contract for a youth charity that had worked with members of the Trudeau family.

But in the face of each setback, Trudeau remained in power. He won reelection twice, making him the longest-serving leader among his G7 peers.

“Trudeau has survived a lot,” Professor Blake said, noting that his political successes and leadership have earned the loyalty of many in his party despite the scandals.

While Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time may be running out.

For one thing, history is not on their side. Only one Canadian prime minister, Sir John A. MacDonald – the country’s first – served four consecutive terms.

Trudeau is also working against sinking popularity. A September Ipsos poll suggested about two-thirds of Canadians disapprove. Only 26% of respondents said Trudeau was their first choice for prime minister, putting him 19 points behind Conservative leader Poilievre.

And then there’s the dwindling support within Trudeau’s own party. So far, at least 18 Liberal deputies have called for their leader to resign.

“You’re kidding yourself if you think we can continue like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.

“It’s unfair to us MPs, it’s unfair to ministers and, most importantly, it’s unfair to the country. We need to move in a new direction and we need to reset.”

According to Long, who has fueled the campaign to recall Trudeau, up to 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him to resign immediately. About the same number are loyal to Trudeau, he said, and the rest are undecided.

“There are still some party loyalists who like it and, you know, want to continue supporting it,” Mr. Martin said. the DC columnist. “But if there was a secret vote by the Liberal group on whether he should remain or not, he would be defeated handily.”

The prime minister is also apparently driven to stay by his disdain for his political opponent Poilievre, Martin noted.

“He doesn’t want to back down and wants to confront Pierre Poilievre, whom he detests,” he said.

Trudeau’s dogged perseverance in the face of a bleak political outlook has drawn comparisons to outgoing US President Joe Biden, who abandoned his candidacy months before the November election only after mounting domestic pressure.

Professor Blake said Trudeau’s legacy, like Biden’s, will depend on how he turns out. Fighting a losing battle, he said, could leave Trudeau “a lasting scar.” But the prime minister has a remarkable ability to survive, he noted.

“He’s been a survivor and hasn’t done what’s normal. Will normal, whatever it is, fit this time? Maybe, but I’m not convinced.”

Trudeau’s dilemma is also similar to the one faced by his father, who won three elections in a row and won a fourth after leaving power for less than a year.

But in 1984, more than 15 years after becoming prime minister, Trudeau’s father – like his son now – was facing dire polls. It seemed clear that he would not win the next election if he remained. He decided to resign, telling the public that he made the decision after taking a walk in the middle of a snowstorm in Ottawa.

Since then, the term “snowwalking” has become synonymous with political resignation in Canada. This Christmas, it remains to be seen whether Trudeau will strike out on his own path.