How did 2024 reshape the Middle East?

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The author is director of regional security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and co-editor of the recently released “Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitical, Security and Energy Dynamics”.

If there was ever a time to use the upper hand in Middle East affairs, it is the year 2024. The series of events that began in October 2023 has been remarkable. If such an important combination of critical, dramatic and strategic events can take time to resolve, what has already happened will undoubtedly have long-term consequences.

The various and already fragile Levantine societies are still major historical changes. In doing so, they are unlikely to receive much outside help due to domestic reluctance and global fatigue. The restructuring of this area is accompanied by greater violence and renewed competition.

Palestinians are suffering unprecedentedly in Gaza at the hands of the Israeli army. Hamas failed to play with blood, and the inability of its partners to help, is a reminder, if it was necessary, that the only way for a Palestinian state is the international and the negotiated outcome. A bilateral settlement agreement organized by Saudi Arabia, other Arab countries and European countries emerged as a possible vehicle for this. The Palestinians will need to be convinced that it is not a diplomatic dance but they must also show ownership of the process, which is the only thing that the long-awaited reform of the Palestinian Authority will do. do. However, such ambitions remain vulnerable to Israeli uncertainty and the potential wrath of Donald Trump.

Similarly, the nation of Israel has gone from extreme poverty to military victory in just over a year. This has reinforced the belief that Israel can only rely on its military power and that the expansion of Gaza, the occupied West Bank and now southern Syria is not only justified but necessary. The unlimited support that Israel receives from the US and several European countries has allowed it to destroy the need for a fair peace that will provide security for all.

But this idea of ​​mere security has negative consequences. It is costly, increases dependence on the US, and alienates existing and potential allies, who fear that Israel will escalate the conflict by striking Iran’s leadership and nuclear weapons. The reputational damage of the Gaza war is huge and the legal bills are still there. The authority of Benjamin Netanyahu and his powerful acolytes appears to be protected even as internal fractures in the Israeli state continue to grow.

For Lebanon, there is a different change. The hubristic Hizbollah must consider the collapse of its military strategy, ideological record and overall credibility. Reviving its resistance mechanisms is a tall order given the need to lick deep wounds, the sudden loss of Syria and the great crisis of its constituency. Many Lebanese who sense an opportunity face two opposing forces: they understand that they will not get many opportunities to change their country but they also recognize the danger of provoking a wounded Hizbollah, which could provoke domestic conflicts.

Above all, Syrians have their first taste of freedom after decades of oppression. The decay of the Assad regime led to its rapid collapse, without the frightening images of large-scale sectarian violence. Instead, the new Islamic regime in Damascus has shown some restraint and wisdom. Keeping the peace, however, will require great works of virtue and sacrifice in an inclusive regime despite external and external aggressors.

At the very least, Syrians can be happy that they have exposed the mistakes of realpolitik. It is most ironic that, ten years ago, many Arab and western countries wanted the Assad regime to go but the Syrians were divided. Since the beginning of December, many Arab and western countries wanted Assad to stay but the Syrians were more united to force internal change. They will then need foreign approval. To achieve Arab-Kurdish reconciliation, Turkey’s balance with US negotiations will be important. To reassure the Alawite community, Russia’s intervention could help. The Gulf states can help reduce Iran’s influence.

Iran is the undeniable loser in all of this. It partnered with the military to expand its influence in fractured countries and divided nations. It expected these groups to advance its interests, instead it was dragged into the wars they started. Turkey seized the opportunity, bypassing Tehran in Syria, the political center of the region.

Many in western cities will find comfort in the fact that so far, these historical changes have been remarkably contained. No mass migration, no protracted civil war, no foreign terrorist attacks, no sustained impact on oil prices, no trade disruption the world. This is a contentment that prepares for unpleasant surprises.