The reshaping of the Middle East

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newspaper.

Hours after he rejected a US-led proposal to sign a 21-day truce with Hizbollah in September, Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that he was changing the balance of power in the region for years to come. Israel’s prime minister had recently ordered the assassination of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, indicating that Israel was abandoning the ruins of Gaza to step up its offensive against Lebanese militants. At the end of the year, there is no doubt that the power in the Middle East has shifted in Israel’s favor.

The Israeli army’s relentless strikes on Hizbollah forced it to enter into a ceasefire agreement that gave Israel the right to continue striking Lebanon. Iran appears to be at its most vulnerable in years. Its “opposition group” of Iranian-backed militants, including Hizbollah and Hamas, looks like a paper tiger. Israeli bombers destroyed most of the Islamic Republic’s air defenses in October – the biggest conventional attack on Iran in decades.

The Islamic State suffered another serious setback this month when Syrian rebels overthrew Bashar al-Assad, the dictator it supported during Syria’s civil war. About 4,000 Iranians were forced out of the country as Iran lost a critical ally in the Middle East and a key supply link to Hizbollah, its most important proxy. Israel may not have been directly involved in the spectacular destruction of Assad, but to pierce Iran’s targets in Syria, and Hezbollahwhich had also helped strengthen the government, paved the way for the rebels to Damascus.

Since the intelligence failure of the terrible attack by Hamas of October 7 2023, which killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostages, the scale of the superiority of the Israeli army over its enemies has become clear in be clear Netanyahu’s political fortunes are back. After that Hamas attack, many predict the end of his reign in Israeli politics. However, he appears as solid as ever, his far-right alliance bolstered by the addition of another party, his poll numbers returning to pre-October 7 levels.

However, Israel’s success on the battlefield has come at a great cost that will intensify in the years to come. No one should mourn the end of Assad’s brutal regime, or the weakening of the evil influence of Iran and its proxies. But Israel’s military success will forever be tarnished by the untold suffering its atrocities have caused millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon.

Israel has faced increasing accusations of committing acts of genocide in Gaza, including a case at the International Court of Justice, detailed reports by Amnesty and Human Rights Watch and among Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu has done for a long time. Not only the shocking number of dead people – more than 45,000, according to Palestinian officials – fuel such accusations, but also the Israeli blockade imposed on 2.3mn-strong Gaza; restrictions on aid and water; and the destruction of public infrastructure that made the area uninhabitable.

In issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the International Criminal Court said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe he was criminally responsible for “the crime of hunger war as a method of war. . . and other inhuman acts”. Israel’s war and siege is a stain not only on Israel but also on the US, which has allowed Netanyahu to operate with impunity.

After destroying the military power of Hamas and destroying regional threats to Israel, Netanyahu has no reason not to end the war and agree to a deal to release the remaining hostages. But he and his far-right allies seem intent on winning more territory from opposite sides and keeping Israel in a state of perpetual conflict. Ultimately, Israel’s security can only be assured through peace, and it is not yet in a strong position to achieve this – if Netanyahu can see it.