Trends shaping electric cars, robot taxis and electric flight in 2024

If there was one phrase that captured the mood and theme of 2024 – at least in the transport sector – it was “business whip”. Legacy automakers have shifted their entire EV or bust strategy, startups have reoriented, and some Silicon Valley VCs and executives have adjusted their views on the changing political landscape in which they now play leading roles.

Jaguar went in a completely new polarizing direction with a rebranding it got a lot of attention and set social media on fire for at least a few days. GM slowed its EV plans and was forced to change lanes in software – an internal overhaul was accelerated due to problems with the Chevy Blazer EV, which had positive developments. But the automaker’s most surprising change has been its decision not to fund the development of the Cruise robotaxi.

Everywhere we looked, founders, VCs and automakers were changing course to take advantage of changing consumer demand and, in many cases, simply to survive.

Here are the biggest topics and stories in transportation in 2024.

Autonomous cars: Pivots, survivors and scale

The boom years of autonomous car technology – from 2016 to 2020 – are long gone, and the era of hype has led us through the pit of disappointment. Including a few remaining AV startups Nightmare Autonomy and Phantom AutoThey breathed their last in 2024. Other AV startups have followed the example of their brethren in other sectors and focused on defenseofficially becoming dual-use companies. Others, like TuSimple, have almost completely moved away from autonomous technology development and instead moved to accepting *cheque notes*. AI animation and gameplay.

The road to a commercial robotics business is still fraught. GM has decided to no longer fund the Cruise robotics development program; the automaker will now use this technology and talent to gradually improve its advanced driver assistance system, eventually introducing personal autonomous vehicles.

However, AVs have gotten a boost from the burgeoning and frenetic AI industry and renewed interest in an end-to-end approach to autonomy (just ask Wave). Waymo and Zooxtwo well-funded AV companies are still on the road to commercial robotics. And, of course, there’s Tesla, which he unveiled this year Cybercab prototype With plans to start production in 2025 or 2026. CEO Elon Musk also called “uncontrolled FSD” and start the robotaxi service It will be in California and Texas next year, but given Musk’s penchant for missing deadlines, we take these promises with a grain of salt.

Other must-read AVs in 2024:

Electric cars are being tested

Legacy automakers like Ford and GM have spent billions to expand their electric vehicle lineups and invest in battery manufacturing facilities in the U.S. to stay on top of the supply chain. EV sales continued to hit record highs this year, boosted by the Biden administration’s EV tax credit. But automakers and investors were wary of selling electric cars 8.9% of total car sales they did not rise as quickly as they had hoped in the third quarter. Tesla even saw its profits fall earlier in the year, with Musk citing automakers pulling back from electric vehicles. pressure of hybrids. This pullback could continue through 2025 with the incoming administration’s plans to reduce the EV tax credit.

Meanwhile, in EV startup country, the SPAC model has continued to prove unsuccessful for long-term business growth. We made a chronicle The messy fall of Fisker – collapsed at the whim of its founders – including how the startup split up The headquarters is in complete disrepair and had to contract with American Lease, which bought Fisker’s fleet, to help its owners. assist with recall repairs.

Canoo also struggled to keep enough cash to operate and began doing so in December vacation workers. Perhaps a startup’s cash problems stem from unsustainable spending habits, e.g It spends double Canoo’s annual revenue In CEO Tony Avila’s private jet or acquiring his assets Insolvent peer Arrival.

Faraday Future is also sinking fast, despite raising more than $1 billion in 2021 when it merges with a SPAC — to the point where it’s now owned by data mining company Palantir 8.7% stake in the company then Faraday could not pay for the services rendered.

One of the only new EV players not to go public with a special-purpose acquisition merger was Rivian. While Rivian hasn’t had the smoothest run since its record-breaking IPO, the EV maker hit some big milestones in 2024, albeit with some speed bumps along the way, including a slew of lawsuits. high-level leaders of aggression.

In March, Rivian introduced the next-generation R2 SUV and the striking R3 hatchback. in summer, Rivia’s way of survival It was attributed to being able to sell the updated R1T pickup and R1S SUV at a profit to last long enough to buy the cheaper R2 SUV on the road. Rivian even snagged a $6.6 billion in loans Restarting production at its Georgia plant, though the deal appears to have been helped by a secret deal with the United Auto Workers union.

Tesla was in a state of flux as Musk struggled to hold his hand A $56 billion pay package through sheer determination and investor loyalty. The car manufacturer released a mass layoffs this yearaxed the entire Supercharger teamAbandoned plans to build $25,000 EV, control seven Cyber ​​truck remindsand inaugurated it robotaxi prototype.

Other must-read EVs in 2024:

EVTOLs still attracting investors

2024 has been a year of great intentions for the electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle industry. There was an announcement every week as two of the biggest players – Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation – shared their plans for future commercial electric air taxis starting in 2025.

It’s also been a big fundraising year as both companies look to raise more money to achieve Federal Aviation Administration certification and launch commercial air taxi services in 2025. For example, Jobi first A $500 million purse From Toyota, it later raised $222 million before launch $300 million public offering. Archer recently collected 430 million dollars and teamed up with Anduril to dive into defense – we expect to continue this theme through 2025. defense technology is heating up. And Beta Technologies raised a $318 million Series C round.

There have been many partnerships between eVTOL startups and more traditional air carriers – like Beta’s recent win with Air New Zealand – and the development of vertiports in major urban areas in the US, Europe and Asia.

Not every startup was so lucky, as companies burned through capital and couldn’t find more funding. German eVTOL startup Lilium has filed for bankruptcy after failing to raise enough capital to continue. Company in December closed and laid off 1,000 workersbut apparently a last minute lifeline from the investor. Stay with us.

2025 will be the year we see if the remaining companies can secure the necessary FAA approval and start making a business out of eVTOLs.

Some eVTOL must-reads in 2024:

Micromobility swings forward

The hype about shared micromobility is long dead. This year has seen consolidation, turnarounds and the last gasps of a few survivors.

Tier and Dott are finally reunitedand Lime continued its steady path to sustainability and market dominance, if not consistent profitability.

VanMoof’s bankruptcy in 2023 revealed how difficult it is to scale a new e-bike business despite consumers’ appetite for sexy, sleek e-bikes. Cake filed for bankruptcy at the beginning of the year and Onyx Motorcycles It was on the brink of bankruptcy when the 37-year-old owner died suddenly, leaving an absolute mess in his wake. Cake and Onyx were given new chances to survive in 2025.

Some startups have managed to find a way to keep the e-bike business afloat. Just look at Joco. The startup fought through the challenges and was able to transform an e-bike rental service built for delivery workers. profitable businessand even branched out to build battery charging cabinets.

Other micromobilities to read in 2024 include: