Can Ukraine face another year of war?

Ukraine is losing the battle on the ground. Many of their soldiers are tired and exhausted after three years of fighting. The question: can the country endure another year of war?

Their forces still resist Russian advances in the east. But they are almost surrounded near the town of Kurakhove, scene of some of the heaviest fighting in recent weeks.

The Black Pack mortar unit tries to prevent the encirclement around Kurakhove. The Russians are closing in from three sides.

We met up with the team at a safe house, resting from the fight. They are not average soldiers. They include a vegan chef, a mechanic, a web developer and an artist. A group of friends with nonconformist opinions. Some call themselves anarchists. They all volunteered to fight.

Surt, its 31-year-old commander, joined the army shortly after the full-scale invasion of Russia. At first he told me that he thought the war would last three years. Now, he says, he is mentally preparing himself for another ten years of fighting.

Everyone knows that Donald Trump wants to end the war. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s president have indicated they are also prepared for talks, but the idea of ​​a workable agreement seems difficult to imagine.

So far, it’s just conversations.

Surt does not disdain Trump’s objective.

“He is a quite ambitious person and I think he will try to achieve it,” he says. But he worries about the outcome of any negotiations.

“We are realistic, we understand that there will be no justice for Ukraine; many will have to accept the fact that their homes were destroyed by rockets and shells, that their loved ones were killed, and this will be difficult.”

When I ask him if he would prefer to negotiate or continue fighting, Surt responds bluntly: “Continue fighting.”

It is a view mirrored by most of the unit. Serhiy, the vegan chef, believes negotiations would only temporarily freeze the war, “and the conflict will return in a year or two.”

He admits that the current situation is “not good” for Ukraine. But he is also willing to keep fighting. Being murdered, he says, “is just an occupational hazard.”

Davyd, the artist, thinks Trump is worryingly unpredictable. “It could be very good or very bad for Ukraine,” he says.

The unit spends a week at the front and the next resting. But even when they rest they continue training because, as they say, it keeps them motivated.

In a frozen field they carry out exercises to fire their mortars. The team has recently been joined by Denys, who voluntarily left the safety of his home in Germany.

“I asked myself the question: could I live in a world where Ukraine does not exist?” he says. He grudgingly admits that he now appears to be losing, but adds, “If you don’t try, you’ll surely lose. At least I’ll die trying to win instead of just lying down and accepting it.”

But unlike the others, Denys believes Ukraine should at least consider a ceasefire. He thinks that the casualties in Ukraine are higher than those officially admitted: more than 400,000 dead and wounded. Mobilizing a larger part of the population, he believes, would not solve the problem.

“I think a lot of the motivated soldiers are lost or quite exhausted, so to me it’s not that we want a ceasefire, but that we can’t continue for many more years,” he says.

Dnipro, Ukraine’s third-largest city, also reflects that sense of war weariness. It is regularly targeted by Russian missiles and drones. Air raid sirens sound intermittently, day and night. When they are silent, Ukrainians try to find some sense of normality in these abnormal times, even by going to the theater.

In the evening performance of a humorous play, called The Kaidash Family, reminders of the war still remain: a minute of silence to remember the fallen, followed by the Ukrainian national anthem.

But some in the public admit they are also hoping for a longer release. Ludmyla tells me: “Unfortunately there are fewer of us. We receive some help, but it is not enough; that is why we have to sit down and negotiate.”

Kseniia says: “There is no easy answer. Many of our soldiers have died. They fought for something: for our territories. But I want the war to end.”

Opinion polls also suggest there is growing support for negotiations.

Some of the loudest calls for a ceasefire come from those who have been forced to flee the fighting. In a shelter near the theater, in a former student residence, a group of four elderly women remember the homes they left behind.

Valentyna, 87, says they arrived with nothing, but were provided with shoes, clothing and food. She says they have been treated well. “It’s good to be a guest, but it’s better to be at home.”

His house is now in Russian-occupied territory. The four women want peace negotiations. But Mariia, 89, says she doesn’t know how both sides will be able to “look each other in the eye after the hell they have committed.”

And he adds: “It is already clear that no one will win militarily, that is why we need negotiations.”

If there are negotiations, these women could end up having to sacrifice more, just as Ukraine may have to sacrifice land for peace.

Additional reporting by Daniel Wittenberg and Anastasiia Levchenko.