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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newspaper.
The first attempt by Jeff Bezos’ private space company, Blue Origin, to put a rocket into orbit will be a big moment for the space industry. After receiving approval from the US authorities last week, the founder of Amazon finally looks close to matching Elon Musk in giving people a way to escape the borders of the Earth – an unprecedented achievement for one person, rich.
However, first to Musk’s SpaceX for two years, Blue Origin it had years of delay. The successful launch of its orbital rocket, named New Glenn, would finally move it beyond its current limited business of carrying passengers to the edge of space, to compete and two of the world’s richest men in a free space race.
But Blue Origin’s latest appearance comes as the rocket business enters a new phase — one that is likely to be more hostile to Bezos’ ambitions than when he jumped into orbit years ago. Most tellingly, Bezos’ potential success comes as his nemesis has risen to the top of Washington politics. Musk’s close relationship with the incoming US president has raised concerns in the tech industry, as opponents worry about how his newfound influence could be used against them.
For his part, Bezos is already struggling to own SpaceX politically. After losing a project to build a lunar rover for Nasa, for example, his company warned that the number of contracts that Washington was giving to SpaceX was at risk. it changes one regime. These days, any formal questioning of that growing power seems less likely.
Musk’s influence could also be important in shaping space policy in Trump’s second term. That could include giving SpaceX an even more important role in US plans to return to the Moon – something that currently relies heavily on the SLS rocket, a $30bn project led by Boeing. With only one flight so far, the SLS has all signs of a white elephantwhich makes it the kind of government boondoggle that Musk’s new government is out to kill.
At the same time, thanks to Musk, the rocket business economy is constantly advancing against new entrants like Bezos. The most obvious challenge comes from SpaceX’s combination of the Heavy Booster launcher and Starship, which together have a massive rocket that can carry 150 tons into space, more than three times the weight of New Glenn.
SpaceX succeeded in the spectacular feat of returning a rocket booster to its launch pad, where it was received by giant mechanical arms. This is a step towards making Starship the first fully reusable rocket, able to be refueled and returned to service within hours of its final flight.
Many local analysts expect this in the end drive the cost of getting the load into place less than $1,000 per kilo, maybe less than $500. That compares to the much lower price of $6,000 per kilogram that SpaceX is currently advertising. Despite not having a Starship, SpaceX has been steadily lowering costs by increasing its number of launches. Last year it launched about three rockets a week and was responsible for more than half of the world’s orbitals. That was a rapid increase from just 33 launches three years ago, and the kind of frequency Blue Origin will take years to match.
Yet for all the steps it still needs to take, Bezos’ rocket company won’t be short of customers. Demand for space launches is expected to outstrip supply for the rest of the decade, while the US military, for one, is desperate for a reliable alternative to SpaceX’s launch. And the race to build a constellation of communications satellites to rival SpaceX’s Starlink is entering a new phase, with Amazon’s Project Kuiper among the challengers.
In Washington, relying on two billions to get a place may sound better than relying on one. But there seems to be no return to the old way of regional development, when the government took all the control and risks. NASA estimated the $400mn SpaceX spent on developing its Falcon rocket was a tenth of what it would have cost the public sector.
The trick for governments now will be to find new ways to deliver control. That may include new programs like SpaceX’s Starshield, a military-grade version of its Starlink network that will give the Pentagon a big boost. For better or worse, going to orbit looks like a business for the very rich.
