Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The author is a former MI6 chief and UK ambassador to the UN
We often think about Middle East as built around the Arab world. Baghdad and Damascus were historical centers of power. In the 20th century, Cairo and Beirut became the cultural capitals of the region until they declined and their influence was eclipsed by the oil and gas wealth of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
Today, it is surprising that the three most powerful countries in the region – Israel, Turkey and Iran – are non-Arab countries. Each is led by an old war horse. Benjamin Netanyahu has been Israel’s prime minister for 17 of the past 28 years. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has ruled Turkey for almost 22 years, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been the supreme leader of Iran for 35 years. Like the Bourbons of France 200 years ago, they learn nothing and forget nothing.
After the humiliating tragedy of the brutal attack by Hamas on October 7 2023, Israel retreated. Its armed forces and intelligence services have turned the tables, not only on Hamas but on Hizbollah and its supporters in Iran. In this process, Netanyahu has ignored advice from close friends of Israel and showed little respect for protecting the lives of civilians. Long-term support for Israel has eroded in the west but its main enemies have weakened considerably.
Israel proved to be the new Sparta – a small nation with unparalleled military power. But its politicians reject the idea that a political solution with the Palestinians is needed if the Jewish community is to enjoy lasting peace and security. Israel has no intention of Gaza beyond staying indefinitely, unless it is the unspoken one of driving the Palestinians there to Egypt and annexing as much of the occupied West Bank as possible. The one prediction we can make with confidence, sadly, is that an independent Palestinian state will be no closer to spring than now.
As the new year begins, Israel’s attention is focused on Iran, which was the big loser of 2024. Khamenei is still looking weak, physically and politically. The main representative after him is his son Mojtaba. Second generation autocrats are rising in power behind the right and the right. They don’t carry the scars of war or learn the hard lessons their fathers learned. Hafez al-Assad was a brutal Syrian leader, but he knew the limits of power and the time to negotiate. His son Bashar did not have that knowledge. The result was even more brutal and, in time, the regime collapsed.
The experience of losing their ally in Syria should make the Iranian military aware of dynastic succession. They will try to make sure that the new supreme leader does not have all the power within the government. But the new leaders of the dictatorship can bring surprises. Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev are obvious examples. Closer to home in Iran is the revolution in Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Everyone realized the weakness of their country and wanted economic and politics a strategy, often involving some openness to the outside world, to support the dictatorship for decades to come. This seems unfavorable to Iran but should not be ruled out.
A weak regime offers the opportunity for new negotiations, even if Khamenei’s senior figure could last a year or two. Donald Trump may prefer a political compromise rather than participating in the military option favored by Netanyahu to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel will argue that Tehran will freeze negotiations as they secretly move forward on a nuclear weapon, a strategic case that now binds Iran even more. These are valid concerns. Khamenei also distrusts America more than US politicians distrust Iran. It may need new leadership in Tehran before Iran changes course.
The biggest surprise of 2024 was the collapse of the Assad regime and the opening of a path to a better future for the Syrian people. Turkey, like Israel, was a winner last year but also has problems taking new opportunities. Erdoğan seems to be looking at Syria because of the distortion of the Kurdish question, which will make it difficult for the Syrian opposition leaders to come together and create a new constitution that accepts the diversity – religious and ethnic – of the country. of them.
Erdoğan, a remarkable survivor, has built Turkish power around the region and in Africa. He showed that Islamic political philosophy can be successful and should not lead to Islamic rule and strict sharia law. In that sense, he can give an example to Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the HTS Islamist group that is now in power in Damascus.
There is a lesson here for the western cities, and for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. We are right to note the extreme nature of al-Sharaa. But the journey of young zealots from political turmoil to national leadership is a long journey. The negotiating task ahead is to increase the chances of success in Syria, by having the courage to lift the sanctions, lift the terrorist laws and do everything we can to support the Syrian opposition to come together.
The instinct in western cities seems to be to slowly pay the ropes and resist Islam on ideological grounds. But that is the path that will make it easy for us to end up separated, like in Libya, or with a new dictator, like in Tunisia. The West also needs to avoid the mistakes of the Bourbons.
