Farage and why Badenoch doesn’t have time to “watch this place”

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Check out this site. This was the meaning of Kemi Badenoch new year message in the country. Although often silly, these mistakes should give an idea of ​​how the parties hope to shape the debate in the coming months. The Tory leader had nothing but “please stay on the phone, your phone is important to us”.

Politics hates a vacuum and while nobody expects Badenoch to have worked on his platform two months into the job, he doesn’t have as much time as he thinks. Many people are looking at this site not with patience. The Tories are alarmed by the power and attention generated by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and are already discussing the time he has.

One serious and well-connected observer recently claimed that Boris Johnson was a fixture to be the next prime minister. He is not alone in this debate, and if one looks at the recent biography of the former Tory leader there is no doubt that the man himself did not rule out the possibility.

Perhaps such talk is motivated by the imminent (and sometimes implausible) return of Donald Trump or the sense of crisis that brings a maverick spirit to western politics. Johnson fits that mold, although there are compelling reasons why it won’t happen. His closest supporters have all left Westminster. He has no base in the country and whatever the UK’s Maga majority may be, it is looking at Farage. Above all, he reminds voters why the Tory brand is under fire.

What such a conversation illuminates is the depth of the Conservative funk. Boris’s theory is ultimately a game of continuous decline and frustration. At one point, the battered Tory party could rebuild slowly and wait for the pendulum to swing. But the rise of the Reform denied Badenoch that time and place. Farage may be training his fire at work but his first priority is to show himself as a real opponent.

Badenoch’s first few weeks have been dull, unfocused, and at times he has even playing into the hands of Reform. As he finds his feet, Farage is making headlines. Both GB News and the Telegraph, two of the most important media for the right, now seem to be more than his marketing efforts. Humanity is awake and enjoying Elon Musk’s blessing. Farage has social media smarts and an eye for a news story. Even if he doesn’t win outright he is influencing and changing the debate, very clearly about immigration.

Above all, there is a passion in his message that the two major parties are failing – and indistinguishable. At the last election, Labor and the Tories combined got just 57 per cent of the vote. The area of ​​success chaos seems to be growing.

Now, Prominent Conservatives are talking about this deal what must be done about him to regain power. However, it is possible to see behind some of the hype. Even if it has a chance to enjoy local elections in the next 18 months, Reform has a long way to go. It just passed opinion poll has strengthened its allies by saying it can win 71 seats in the next election. However the poll also shows the Tories nearly doubling their current numbers. And as far as one can take such an early survey seriously, its key message was disillusionment with Labour.

Another explanation may be that Reform appears as a nationalistic image of the Liberal Democrats (the same Farage agrees) but on the political right, a pirate party with regional and demographic support in areas where the Conservatives are struggling to challenge Labour. The change has appeal on both left and right, including poor and older Labor voters. Disagreements are common but the parties that challenge them are often not punished much for this.

For all its winning rhetoric, the real aim of Reform remains to be effective enough to retain power and force change in the UK’s electoral system, which could change the political map forever.

None of this is to undermine the party’s ability, not to force other parties to follow its agenda. Its development is the political spirit that is yet to come. Its growth depends on unpopular government and unpopular opposition; elections show progressive electoral division that allows parties to win seats with lower electoral divisions. But while Labor has little time to gain support, Badenoch has none. It’s foolish to let him go now, but even the sympathetic suggest he has a year to 18 months to prove he can revive the party.

It may be that with the next election some kind of agreement (or just a non-aggression pact) is needed. But Badenoch need not panic now. Besides, any deal that leads to electoral reform is not in his party’s interest. What he needs to do is change the narrative of Reform by bringing the Conservatives back into the national conversation as the main voice of opposition and issues other than immigration. Fortunately, Labor has offered economic opportunities linked to its idea of ​​lower taxes. The Tories, and Badenoch in particular, need to make a case against Rachel Reeves’ tax hike. Looking good here will buy him time to carry out his plans.

Badenoch was chosen because the Tories felt he had the spirit to make them listen. But the pride of privilege is rising around him and he has no leisure to express himself while a grateful public is waiting.

robert.shrimsley@ft.com