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American consumers will spend a record $537 billion on new apps, devices and gadgets in 2025. a new one-year forecast From the Consumer Technology Association.
But there’s a catch, CTA futurist Brian Comiskey warned on stage Monday at the group’s massive Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas: Trump’s proposed tariff plans, which would raise costs for U.S. consumers, could erode much of that cost.
The CTA predicts “record retail revenues” for the US consumer technology industry in 2025, up 3.2% from 2024. However, Comiskey warned that those predictions could change as “smartphones and laptops are threatened by President-elect Trump’s tariff proposals.” Tariffs on technological products can cause the purchasing power of the United States to fall by 90-143 billion dollars, that is, by B to billion dollars.
In October CTA issued a report specifically looked at two tariff proposals: a 10% or 20% tariff on all imports from all countries and a 60% tariff on all imports from China.
It concluded that these offers could increase the prices of laptops and tablets by 46%, video game consoles by 40%, and smartphones by 26%.
On stage, Comiskey offered additional color, explaining that “spends on tablets and laptops could be reduced by up to 68%, game consoles by 58% and smartphones by 37%.”
Without such tariffs, the consumer tech industry is headed for what Comiskey calls a “super cycle” of spending. That’s partly because only the newest computers, tablets, and smartphones can access new AI-powered features on computers like Apple Intelligence or Microsoft Copilot+. CTA’s research shows that consumers desire these features. Most consumers say they are familiar with generative AI, and many already use it at work.
At the same time, AI is also juicing many classic consumer tech categories fitness trackers to smart TVs (As a newly announced product from Google), to parent technology such as electronics baby rockers.
Whether or not the AI in these products actually makes the gadget worthwhile may not matter. Because the last thing that points to 2025 being a big year for gadgets is the rise in purchasing power of Gen Z. Generation Z is expected to make up 27% of the global workforce in 2025. Udemy predicts. This is the generation that loves new technology the most and enjoys early adopters.
