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The security crisis continues in Europe. Two dangerous things may meet in 2025. The increasing threat from Russia and increasing indifference from the America of Donald Trump.
European countries need to respond quickly to this alarming political mix by building their own security. For that to happen, it is important that Germany, Europe’s largest economy, finally succeeds Chancellor Olaf Scholz. promise of a huge rise in defense spending.
Making the political case for increased defense spending requires clarity about what is happening in Russia and America.
Mark Rutte, the newly appointed NATO secretary general, warned last month that: “The Russian economy is in a state of war . . . Danger is approaching us at great speed.” He urged Nato to increase its defense output urgently and “to switch to a wartime mindset”.
Last April, General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s top commander in Europe, warned that: “Russia shows no sign of stopping. And Russia does not plan to stop with Ukraine. ” Western analysts argue that Russia is already engaged in a hybrid war with Europe – one that includes regular acts of destruction that endanger the lives of many people.
During the cold war, the US led a coordinated response when Russia mounted military pressure on Europe. But America’s response this time promises to be very different. President Trump’s key choices include advisers who have been outspoken about their desire to export US military equipment from Europe to Asia.
Elbridge Colby, who was recently appointed secretary of defense for policy, wrote in the FT last year that China is the most important thing for the US than Russia and argues that “the US must prevent the forces from Europe that are needed for Asia, even if Russia attacks first “.
European security analysts worry that the withdrawal of US troops from Europe will encourage Russian aggression. Recently book, Chatham House’s Keir Giles argues: “The withdrawal of US military support for Nato is the surest possible way to turn the possibility of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine into an opportunity. ”
However, in most of Europe, the Russian threat still seems distant. In nearly three years of war in Ukraine, Moscow’s forces have made little territorial gains and taken staggering losses – now estimated at 700,000 soldiers killed or wounded.
But the magnitude of the casualties that Vladimir Putin is willing to absorb should also be a warning. Now the Russian army is bigger than at the beginning of the war in 2022. And, as Rutte recently said, the country produces “large numbers of tanks, armored vehicles and guns”.
European countries do not have the manpower and resources to engage in a war of the type Russia is waging in Ukraine. At the beginning of last year, the British army had 73,520 – the smallest since 1792. The German army has 64,000.
Nato military planners think the alliance falls short of the three it needs to be to effectively deter Russia. There are specific shortages in air defense, logistics, ammunition and secure communications equipment.
Alliance members currently commit to spending two percent of GDP on defense. They could nominally raise that target to 3 percent at the next Nato summit. But even that would only be enough if the European countries agreed to make the price of the goods indivisible according to the national laws.
The 3 percent target is also based on the assumption that America will maintain its commitment to Nato. If it doesn’t, defense planners think European countries will need to increase defense spending to 4.5 percent of GDP. But even 3 percent looks very difficult. The problem is compounded by Rutte’s own record as prime minister of the Netherlands from 2010 to 2024. His country hit just 2 percent in the last year of his job.
The closer you get to the Russian border, the more serious the Russian threat becomes. Poland is on track to increase its defense spending to 4.7 percent of GDP by 2025. But the largest economy in western Europethat’s a different story. Germany and France did not hit two percent last year; In Britain it was 2.3 percent.
France has a budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP and a public debt of more than 100 percent. The British government is also heavily indebted and struggling to raise funds.
But Germany – with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 60 percent – has fiscal room to spend more on defense. It also has a large industrial and engineering center.
Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats, who is likely to emerge as German chancellor after the election this year, takes the threat from Russia seriously. He could lead a historical revolution. If Germany can restore its constitutional provisions against the deficit – and accept the need for a common EU debt to fund European security – it could change the continent’s security situation.
Even 80 years after the end of the second world war, some of Germany’s neighbors—notably Poland and France—will feel uneasy about returning German weapons. But, for their safety, they have to go through it.