China’s December imports record surprise jump, exports beat expectations

China’s exports and imports in December exceeded expectations by a wide margin, data from the country’s customs authority showed on Monday, and exporters continued to anticipate shipments ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pending tariffs. .

China’s exports in December rose 10.7% from a year earlier, beating the expectation of 7.3% growth in a Reuters poll. That compares with 6.7% growth in November and a peak of 12.7% in October.

Customs data showed imports rose 1.0% last month from a year earlier, reversing the contraction of the previous two months.

Analysts had forecast imports would fall 1.5% year-on-year. That is compared to a biggest drop of 3.9% in November and 2.3% in October.

Last year, China’s total yuan-denominated exports rose 7.1% from the previous year, accelerating from a modest growth of 0.6% in 2023customs officials said at a news conference Monday.

China’s imports increased by 2.3% last year, rebounding from a drop of 0.3% in 2023.

A prolonged real estate crisis has hit domestic demand, leaving the country more dependent on exports to drive growth.

Economists expect trade to significantly supported China’s economic growth last year. GDP data will be released later this week.

Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s battered economy amid rising trade tensions with its main trading partners (the United States and the European Union), but this growth could be threatened after Trump returns to the White House.

Exports of electric vehicles and semiconductors. increased 13.1% and 18.7% last year, respectivelyaccording to customs officials.

Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, has stoked fears about higher tariffs on Chinese exports. He has promised additional tariffs of 10% on all Chinese products coming into the US.

Since late September, Chinese authorities have ramped up political support to shore up the country’s economy as growth falters and social tensions rise. But “a residue of caution and moderation remains,” said Gabriel Wildau, CEO of Teneo, in a note last Friday.

China has cut policy ratesloosened property purchase restrictionsinjected liquidity into the financial market, as well as presentation of a debt exchange program to alleviate fiscal stress on local governments.

“While top leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi still appears reluctant to accept the additional degree of stimulus needed to combat deflation,” Wildau added.

“Policymakers need to keep some stimulus dry to allow for a broad response if the tariff impact is severe,” he said, suggesting that uncertainty over export growth creates additional reason for Beijing to avoid a “big bang approach.” (stimulus)”.

Among a host of key economic data due this week, China will release its full-year and fourth-quarter GDP figures on Friday. Growth is forecast at 5.1% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2024, according to a Reuters survey.

For this year, the top management committed to promoting Domestic consumption is an absolute priority. at the same time that fiscal spending is expanded to finance the policy of exchanging consumer goods and improving equipment. Released in July last year.The trade-in program subsidizes consumers to exchange old cars or appliances and buy new ones at a discount.

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