Hopes for Gaza ceasefire rise as pressure mounts on Hamas and Israel

The outline of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal currently being discussed by Israel and Hamas in indirect talks in Doha has been on the table since May. So why are there new expectations that it might work, after being frozen for eight months of war?

There are several things that have changed, both politically and on the ground.

The first is the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States.

He has He threatened that “all hell” would break loose. if the hostages were not released before he took office on January 20.

Harather may interpret this as a sign that even the flimsy brakes the Biden administration used to try to rein in the Israeli government would be lifted, though it’s hard to imagine what that could mean for a territory already so torn apart by 15 months of war. .

Israel is also feeling pressure from the incoming president to end the conflict in Gaza, threatening to interfere with Trump’s hopes of securing a broader regional agreement and his desired image as a president who ends wars.

On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces continued pressure from his far-right coalition allies to continue the war.

But Trump could also be an asset to him in persuading his allies to accept the deal and remain in government; The new US president and the man he chose as Israel’s ambassador are seen as supporting Israel’s settlements in the occupied West Bank, which Israel’s far-right Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, He has said that he wants to annex.

But after a meeting with the prime minister last night, Smotrich seemed unconvinced, writing on social media that the current deal was “a catastrophe” for Israel’s national security and that he would not support it.

Some in Israel, however, believe that both Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see his current role in Israel’s government as their best opportunity to consolidate control over the West Bank, especially with Trump’s return to the presidency. White House, and that they are unlikely to follow through on their threats to resign.

The second thing that has changed is the increasing pressure on Netanyahu from his own military establishment.

Key figures are widely said to have repeatedly challenged him over the shrinking military targets to continue the war, following the assassination of Hamas’ top leaders and the annihilation of Gaza.

Last week, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, highlighting the costs of the war for Israel and the perennial question of whether the “total victory” over Hamas that Netanyahu has promised is achievable.

Some analysts now suggest that Hamas is rebuilding faster than Israel is defeating it and therefore Israel needs to reconsider its strategy.

And there is a third change – regional – that also influences the change in expectations: the weakening and erosion of Hamas’s allies in Iran’s “axis of resistance”from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, along with the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

For all these reasons, it is now seen as the best opportunity in months to close the gaps between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

What hasn’t changed in the eight months since they last negotiated are the gaps between them.

Chief among them is a direct conflict between the key concerns of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and that of Israel, which wants to keep the door open to a resumption of the conflict, whether for political or military reasons.

The deal, as President Joe Biden described it in MayIt is divided into three phases, and a permanent ceasefire will only come into effect in phase two.

Success now will likely depend on whether guarantees can be found to allay Hamas’ fears that Israel will withdraw from the deal after the first phase of hostage releases.

Questions about how to administer the territory from which Israel is withdrawing are also unclear at this stage.

But the diplomatic network that has crisscrossed the region over the past week and the fact that Netanyahu has sent the heads of Israel’s security agencies to the talks in Doha, along with a key political adviser, are encouraging signs.

So is the departure to Doha of the coordinator of Palestinian detainees, Qadoura Fares.

The deal is not yet done and talks have fallen apart before.

This old agreement is fueling new hopes, in part because the negotiations are taking place in a new regional context, with increasing pressures both at home and from key allies abroad.