Ceasefire in Gaza: What can we expect?

Israel and Hamas are believed to be close to reaching a deal that could stop the war in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

It would be the most dramatic advance in 15 months of war, which began when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

A ceasefire agreement is expected to mean an agreement to stop the war that has been ravaging Gaza.

An exchange of hostages and prisoners is also expected.

Hamas took 251 hostages when it attacked Israel in October 2023. It still holds 94 hostages, although Israel believes only 60 are still alive.

Israel is expected to release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of them imprisoned for years, in exchange for the hostages.

This ceasefire is expected to occur in three stages, once an agreement is announced.

Details are still being finalized. Until an agreement is finalized, it is subject to change.

First stage

A Palestinian official told the BBC that in the first stage, 34 hostages – expected to be civilians – would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Three hostages would be released immediately and the rest of the exchange would take place over six weeks.

During this stage, Israeli troops would also begin to withdraw from populated areas of Gaza.

The Palestinian official said detailed negotiations for the second and third stages would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

Second stage

In the second stage, the remaining hostages (soldiers and reservists) would be released, in exchange for several Palestinian prisoners.

Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners whom Israel is believed to have agreed to release, around 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of murder would not be released in the occupied West Bank.

During this stage, Israel would also allow displaced people now in southern Gaza to return to the north.

Almost all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have had to flee their homes due to the fighting.

Third stage

The third and final stage would involve rebuilding Gaza, something that could take years.

The Israeli official said Israeli forces would remain in a security or buffer zone inside Gaza during any ceasefire.

Getting to this point has required months of painstaking indirect negotiations, not least because Israel and Hamas completely distrust each other.

Hamas wanted to completely end the war before releasing the hostages, something that was unacceptable to Israel.

In fact, the ceasefire will stop the war while its terms are met.

However, it is unclear whether that will mean the war will be over for good.

One of Israel’s key war objectives has been to destroy the military and governance capabilities of Hamas. Although severely damaged by Israel, Hamas still has some ability to operate and regroup.

It is also unclear which hostages are alive or dead or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those still missing.

For its part, Hamas has demanded the release of some prisoners that Israel says it will not free. These are believed to include those who participated in the October 7 attacks.

It is also unknown whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone on a certain date or whether its presence there will be indefinite.

Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile.

Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas that had stopped previous wars have been rocked by skirmishes and eventually broken.

The timing and complexity of this ceasefire means that even a small incident could become a major threat.

Hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaking through the border fence and attacking communities, police stations and military bases.

Around 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were returned to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets into Israel.

Israel responded with a massive military campaign, first by air and then by land. Since then, Israel has attacked targets throughout Gaza by land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.

Israel’s offensive has devastated Gaza and caused severe food shortages, and aid is struggling to reach those most in need. More than 46,600 people – most of them civilians – have been killed by Israel’s attacks, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.