The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Confirming Trump’s Cabinet Nominees

Expect a Senate gridlock as soon as the race to confirm President-elect Trump’s presidency begins. cabinet candidates.

In short, nothing can happen until President-elect Trump takes office on January 20.

Yes, there will be plenty of Trump loyalists attending various inaugural balls around town.

But once the inauguration festivities at the Capitol conclude, the Senate will get to work. A handful of committees are already planning to schedule “makes” to potentially fire or send multiple nominations to the floor. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has already scheduled a meeting for 3:15 p.m. on January 20 for the nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to be Secretary of State. And if custom holds, the Senate will confirm at least some of Trump’s nominees just hours after he takes the oath of office.

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Let history be our guide:

The Senate confirmed Trump’s Defense Secretary James Mattis and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly on the night of January 20, 2017. The next confirmation did not come until January 31, 2017. It was Elaine Chao , wife of former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), to be Secretary of Transportation.

In 2021, the Senate confirmed one of President Biden’s nominees shortly after he was sworn in. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines was Biden’s first nominee confirmed, on the evening of January 20, 2021. The first Cabinet-level vote did not occur until January 22, when the Senate confirmed the Secretary of Defense , Lloyd Austin.

So while everyone is trying to put on their tuxedos on Monday night, expect the Senate to potentially vote on one or two candidates on the night of January 20.

Fox is told that the most likely candidates could include Rubio, since he is a well-known figure in the Senate and has bipartisan support. Another possibility would be the candidate for CIA director, John Ratcliffe. The Senate previously confirmed Ratcliffe as Director of National Intelligence during the first Trump Administration. He is also a well-known entity in the halls of Congress and served as a Republican congressman from Texas. His hearing is scheduled for tomorrow.

Frankly, the ambitious schedule of quickly approving several of the nominees could be a challenge.

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The Senate Energy Committee had to postpone Tuesday’s confirmation hearing for Interior Secretary Doug Burgum from Tuesday to Thursday due to paperwork delays. Veterans Affairs Secretary nominee Doug Collins is not controversial. He is a former Republican congressman from Georgia. But his confirmation hearing on Tuesday was postponed until next week. Collins could have been a figure that could have been confirmed quickly.

Attorney general nominee Pam Bondi could also get relatively quick confirmation. His hearing is Wednesday and Thursday. So maybe next week for her? Unclear.

But let’s examine the Senate’s record in confirming President Biden’s nominees and compare it to expectations for the new Trump Administration.

Following Lloyd Austin, the Senate confirmed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on January 25, 2021, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on January 26. Most Cabinet officials were not confirmed until February or March. The Senate did not confirm Interior Secretary Deb Haaland until March 15, 2021, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra until March 18, 2021, and Labor Secretary Marty Walsh until on March 22, 2021.

You get the idea.

Each candidate must go through a hearing. Committees have different rules for how to bring a nomination to the floor. So that could also consume some time. Some candidates could get stuck in the committee, depending on opposition or attendance issues. Then there can be a debate in the room.

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If Democrats filibuster a nominee, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R.S.D.) may need to implement a procedural tactic to break the filibuster. The process of simply initiating a procedural vote to break a filibuster consumes only three days. If a candidate’s opponents still do not concede, senators may prolong debate on a candidate for a day or two, although the senate has broken a filibuster.

In February 2017, Mike Pence became the first vice president to break a tie to confirm a Cabinet official. He did so to confirm former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos.

In other words, floor time is scarce. There are several parliamentary “meridians” for determining when the Senate can take certain procedural votes to advance a candidate. That’s why the Senate held a 7 a.m. procedural vote on DeVos’ nomination in February 2017. The Senate also confirmed then-Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price around 2 a.m. one morning.

And we haven’t even gotten to other appointments that are important to the Administration, like Pete Hoekstra as ambassador to Canada or Mike Huckabee as ambassador. to israel. There are more than 800 positions requiring Senate confirmation.

To speed things up, the Senate could confirm “en bloc” some groups of non-controversial candidates. That means the Senate approves nominees from both sides to make sure there are no objections. If there are none, the Senate draws up a list and confirms a group of candidates in one go.

But this is a long and tedious process. Confirming several positions in the Trump administration will take months. It consumes hours of time on the ground. That is the most precious asset in the Senate. Note that the push to confirm Trump’s nominees comes as the Senate is trying to reach a deal on timing and amendments to pass the Laken Riley Act and a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court for its order. of arrest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

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This is a monstrous process. And it will probably consume some early morning sessions, very late night sessions, and even some weekend sessions before this resolves itself.