The long-awaited ceasefire in Gaza may stop the killings, but it will not end the conflict

The ceasefire is a considerable achievement. It should have been done a long time ago.

Versions of the deal have been on the table since May of last year. Hamas and Israel have blamed each other for the delays.

Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023 that killed about 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, has left Gaza in ruins. Most of Gaza’s population, which exceeds two million people, has been displaced.

According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, Israeli strikes have killed nearly 50,000 people, both combatants and civilians. A recent study published in the Lancet medical journal says that could be a significant underestimate.

The first major challenge is to ensure that the ceasefire holds. Senior Western diplomats fear that after the first 42-day phase the war could resume.

The Gaza war has had immense consequences throughout the Middle East.

It did not lead, as many feared, to a general war in the region (the Biden administration has taken credit for that), but it has sparked geostrategic upheaval.

Hamas can still fight, but it is a shadow of its former self.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister have been charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court.

The International Court of Justice is investigating a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.

After Hezbollah in Lebanon intervened in the war, it was eventually crushed by an Israeli offensive.

That was a factor that led to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.

Iran and Israel exchanged direct attacks, weakening Iran. Its network of allies and representatives that Tehran called the Axis of Resistance has been paralyzed.

The Houthis in Yemen have stopped much shipping between Europe and Asia that passes through the Red Sea; It remains to be seen whether they will fulfill their promise to stop the attacks now that there is a ceasefire in Gaza.

As for the long conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, it is more bitter than ever.

The ceasefire could hopefully stop the killings and return Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees and prisoners to their families.

It does not put an end to a conflict that is more than a century old.