How Donald Trump changed the Gaza ceasefire agreement

Steve Witkoff was just an observer at the US Capitol when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at a joint session of Congress in July, an experience that the real estate investor described as “epic” and “breathtaking”.

Five months later, the Bronx-born businessman – with no negotiating experience – was in Israel as Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, urging and pressuring Netanyahu to make a deal to end the war-torn country. 15 months in Gaza.

After talking about the latest news, many false dawns and seemingly endless problems, the odds seemed stacked against success before the end of Joe Biden’s term as US president.

So it meant that when Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in Doha finally announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a ceasefire – to enable the release of hostages held in the besieged square – Witkoff was there with other advocates.

What has changed in the last eight months? It was Trump and Witkoff. “The way Trump has acted has really shown the difference,” said the person giving the briefing.

The the nature of the covenant — a multi-stage proposal ultimately leading to peace and reconstruction — was initiated by mediators and publicly embraced by Biden more than six months ago. But it was Trump’s commitment that ultimately sealed the deal.

Trump had made Middle East peace a big issue during his campaign and attacked Biden’s failure to secure a ceasefire; after the election, he was quick to back up his speeches. Witkoff, his surprise choice as Middle East envoy, was sent to Qatar on November 22 – less than three weeks after his election victory.

In Doha, Witkoff met with Sheikh Mohammed to find out more about the stalled talks and to understand why Qatar – which has been frustrated by the warring factions over the lack of progress in the talks as well as the criticism it has attracted for accepting Hamas – has suspended its role. as a mediator.

He then flew to Tel Aviv to meet with Netanyahu. It is not known whether Witkoff delivered the right threats from Trump or made promises to Israel in the event of a deal – two hallmarks of Trump’s negotiations, unpredictable and equally effective.

But the result was clear: a day later, on November 24, Israel’s chief spokesman David Barnea, head of the Mossad spy agency, was on his way to meet Sheikh Mohammed in Vienna.

“That’s where things started, and it was a completely different determination from the Israeli side,” said a person briefed on the interview.

Witkoff, a close friend of Trump’s who is also known to Qatari officials for his real estate business, suddenly became the weather expert in an unexpected discussion group that led by Biden’s top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk.

In instructing their representatives to coordinate, both Biden and Trump put aside their fierce personal and political rivalry — a minor miracle in itself.

Their challenge was clear. Netanyahu has spent much of the past year circling Biden’s mediators, several times coming close to a deal before introducing new terms, such as new demands that include Israeli forces staying on the road to Philadelphia, the area a small one that runs along the Gazan-Egypt border.

Even some Israeli security officials accused Netanyahu of blocking the operation, but the Biden administration, at least publicly, largely agreed with Israel in blaming Hamas for the failure of negotiations.

By this time Israel had completed its battlefield objective against Hamas: the militant group’s military strength had been destroyed and Israel had killed almost all of the group’s top leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7 2023 attack.

The Biden team had decided that there would be no deal as long as Sinwar was alive. But even after Israel killed him in October, talks in Gaza remained tense. Netanyahu had publicly insisted he would not agree to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza or withdraw Israeli forces from the blockade line – and there was no sign he would budge.

Trump’s election derailed the Gaza talks and created a new reality: any deal Biden agreed to would be implemented by Trump.

In early December, Trump made it clear that he wanted the conflict to be over by the time he had in January, writing on his Public Truth platform: “If the hostages are not released first on January 20, 2025. . . there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.” The post came shortly after Trump dined at his Mar-a-Lago estate with Netanyahu’s wife Sara and son Yair.

In mid-December, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan and McGurk went to Israel to make the final push to resume negotiations to end the war in Gaza.

There were doubts that Netanyahu would wait to bring success to Trump, unlike the crippled Biden presidency. The Israeli prime minister also faced constant pressure from right-wing allies who threatened to quit his ruling party if he agreed to make a deal with Hamas or “give in” to the Palestinians – the reason he was still there. struggling to control after the deal was announced.

But people briefed on the talks said Witkoff was in many cases unwilling to put up with frustrating discussions. With Trump’s support, he was direct with Netanyahu about what needs to happen and gave assurances of strong US support for Israel, the people said.

“He gives us a lot of power to speak for him, and he advises us to speak with power. And strongly to say: ‘It’s better to do this’,” Witkoff told reporters in Palm Beach last week.

McGurk returned to the area in early January shortly after Hamas made a key concession: it agreed to a list of 34 more hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal, a senior official said. of the US administration said.

But again the power of negotiation began to fade. Witkoff flew back to Doha to meet with Sheikh Mohammed late last week to discuss the ceasefire, and he agreed that Witkoff would push the Israelis as Qatar pressured Hamas.

With McGurk’s agreement, Witkoff returned to Israel to meet with Netanyahu – an unscheduled trip during Shabbat, the Jewish holiday.

Witkoff then joined McGurk and Barnea, Israel’s chief negotiator, in Doha, where they stayed until the deal was concluded. Interviews were held in Sheikh Mohammed’s office or residence, often late into the night.

Elsewhere, Hamas spokesmen were in the same building, just one floor below.

Many in the Arab world and beyond believed that Biden had repeatedly failed to use his influence over Netanyahu to agree to a deal or reverse Israel’s deadly attack on Gaza while he represented the country. strictly Jewish.

When Witkoff joined, on the other hand, the Israelis seemed stronger. “He handled this like he was trying to get a business deal,” the person said succinctly. He applied the right pressure. There is a feeling that when he met the Israelis, there was progress.”

At first McGurk and Witkoff talked to each other and only talked to each other. But in the final stages of negotiations, they decided it would make sense for Witkoff to enter the negotiations directly.

They knew that any success would depend on Netanyahu accepting key points that had previously undermined the agreement, such as where the Israeli forces in Gaza would rebuild.

That’s where Witkoff played his part, backed by Trump’s political power. Netanyahu knew that during his first term, Trump pushed through a series of pro-Israel policies that upended the age of US Middle East policy.

“The only difference is Trump. Netanyahu wants to align himself with Trump. . . they (the Americans) made it clear that they want to be quiet here,” said one person familiar with the negotiations.

Trump’s victory has also empowered Qatar and Egypt to put new pressure on Hamas.

“Trump’s impact was not only on Bibi, it was also on Qatar and Egypt,” said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East peace spokesman now at the Washington Center for Near Policy. East. “They depended on Hamas because they both have a role to show Trump: “Look at what we’ve done.”

The current ceasefire will take effect on Sunday, when the first hostages are due to be released – the day before Trump’s January 20 inauguration.

Additional reporting by Neri Zilber in Tel Aviv

Cartography by Aditi Bhandari