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It is not yet clear whether the ceasefire in Gaza will take effect. But, if the war really ends, what does it mean in the world?
For Israel, the effect appears to be twofold. The country’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, could argue that he has turned a national crisis into a strategic victory. Hamas is destroyed, if not completely destroyed. Hizbollah, the Lebanese militia that was the most armed and threatening part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, has also been reduced. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct fire. But most of Iran’s missiles failed to get past the defenses of Israel and its allies – and the Islamic republic looks its weakest in decades.
Strategically, Israel emerges from this conflict as the preeminent power in the Middle East – with its military deterrence fully restored and its enemies frustrated. But against that, Israel has suffered a lot in reputation. As many as 46,000 people are believed to have been killed during the Israeli offensive and Gaza has been reduced to rubble. Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes – putting him in the same legal bracket as Vladimir Putin. As the leader of Russia, Netanyahu will now find it very difficult to travel internationally.
Israel’s popularity has fallen in international opinion polls. Young people – even in the US – now hate the country a lot. A Pew research in April he concluded: “Young Americans are more likely to sympathize with the Palestinian people than with the Israeli people.” A third of adults under 30 say their sympathies are either totally or mostly with the Palestinians, compared to 14 percent who side with Israel.
Israelis can hope that sentiment will soften over time – especially if peace is restored. Netanyahu and his allies also believe that friends in the White House will be more important than enemies in American camps.
But Trump’s friendship may not be unconditional. There is a surprising fear in the Israeli right that the next US administration has put its weight behind the ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages that was negotiated by the Biden White House. The hope in Israel that Trump will give it a completely free hand to deal with the Palestinians, as it sees fit, has taken a knock.
Trump’s decision to push hard for peace now may reflect two main factors. The first is his desire to take credit for the deal and the hostage releases. The second is that – although Israel enjoys strong support in the Republic – it is not the only important country in the region. During his first presidency, Trump’s first overseas trip was to Saudi Arabia.
The incoming Trump administration is now likely to push for the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia – which was also a major goal of the Biden administration. Perhaps, this gives a scintilla of hope to the Palestinian people, as it is widely believed that the Saudi purchase for normal conditions will be tangible progress towards a Palestinian state. However, that may be a price the Israelis are unwilling to pay, which may mean the Saudi-Israeli deal remains a mystery.
The war in Gaza has also had global significance, as well as regional significance. One of the reasons why the US and its western allies have been reluctant to put serious pressure on Israel is their belief that Iran is a common enemy. In the past year, western officials have repeatedly spoken of their belief that they are now fighting a global war against a “group of adversaries” made up of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
By weakening Iran, Israel has also weakened that gap. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was, in large part, the result of Israel’s brutal attack on Hizbollah, which was Bashar al-Assad’s main ally.
The collapse of Assad’s power was a major blow to Iran and Russia, which had intervened militarily on his behalf. Russia was using Syria as a power projection center and now it has to back down. Ironically, Israel itself has had a more cautious response to the fall of Assad than many in the west, fearing that jihadist forces will enter Syria’s sphere of influence.
The ultimate casualty of the Gaza war has been the “order based on international law” promoted by the Biden administration. Sympathy and support for Israel after the October 7 attacks led the US to tolerate the violation of international humanitarian law during Israel’s attack on Gaza. Restoring a rules-based order may be as difficult as the reconstruction of Gaza.
