Why Somalis are in love with Donald Trump

Many people in Somaliland are convinced that the United States, under the incoming presidency of Donald Trump, is prepared to become the first country in the world to recognize the self-proclaimed republic.

The territory declared independence 33 years ago after Somalia descended into civil war, and in many ways has functioned as a de facto nation-state ever since.

“Donald is our savior. He is a wise and practical man. God bless America,” says college student Aisha Ismail, whose voice trembles with joy at the prospect.

He speaks to me from Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, a city 850 kilometers (530 miles) north of Mogadishu, the seat of the Somali government.

For those living in Mogadishu, Somaliland is an indivisible part of Somalia.

“I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, no matter where he is,” says Abdi Mohamud, a data analyst in Mogadishu, whose voice begins to shake.

“I’m breathing fire.”

He is very angry because Mrs. Ismail’s high expectations are not necessarily a pipe dream, at least in the long term.

Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the same, including Congressman Scott Perry, who last month introduced a bill proposing formal recognition of Somaliland by the United States.

It followed the publication in April 2023 of Project 2025a road map for Trump’s second presidency compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other conservative organizations.

The document mentions only two African territories in its sub-Saharan Africa section – Somaliland and Djibouti – and proposes “the recognition of Somaliland as a state as a protection against the deterioration of the United States’ position in Djibouti.”

However, the fact that sub-Saharan Africa takes up less than two pages of the more than 900-page plan suggests that the continent is very low on the list of priorities.

Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the incoming administration will follow through with the plan, part of which Trump has already disavowed.

But one thing is clear. The United States has already begun to change its stance on Somaliland, moving away from its Mogadishu-centric approach, known as the “single track” policy in Somalia.

Somalia has cost the United States dearly in financial, resource and human terms since the early 1990s, when the bodies of 18 US service members were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu after US helicopters were shot down by Somali clan fighters. .

The battle, known as “Black Hawk Down,” was the worst in terms of casualties in the United States since the Vietnam War.

“Any move to recognize Somaliland’s independence would not only contravene Somalia’s sovereignty but would also destabilize the region by setting a dangerous precedent,” said Somali Foreign Minister Ali Omar Balcad.

The African Union and other world powers believe that territorial integrity is paramount. Recognizing Somaliland could set off a chain reaction with separatists around the world demanding recognition of the territories they claim.

Balcad also highlighted concerns about a possible repeat of the first Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from Somalia most US troops who had been fighting al-Shabab, regularly described as al-Qaeda’s most successful affiliate.

Under President Joe Biden, some 500 US troops have been stationed in Somalia, conducting special operations and training an elite Somali force, Danab, which has proven more effective than the regular Somali army in rooting out Al Shabab.

The Americans have an air base at Baledogle, northwest of Mogadishu, and conduct regular airstrikes against Islamist insurgents.

“A withdrawal would create a significant security vacuum, emboldening terrorist groups and threatening the stability not only of Somalia but of the entire Horn of Africa,” Balcad warned.

The minister’s comments are in a similar but more measured vein than Somalia’s response to an agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia under which recognition would be granted in exchange for access to the sea.

I received late-night calls from Somalis saying they couldn’t sleep thinking about the controversial proposal.

Somalia’s then environment minister, Aden Ibrahim Aw Hirsi, told me at the time: “You always talk about ‘political bombings’ in your reports.

“Here we talk about a political earthquake. This is much more serious: it is a tsunami.”

Türkiye has since mediated to end the dispute. but the fact that Somalia recently signed a $600,000 (£492,000) a year deal with Washington’s top lobbying firm, the BGR Group, suggests it is concerned about relations with the incoming Trump administration.

United States last month abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution to finance the latest incarnation of the African Union intervention force in Somalia.

A key architect of African republican thought, especially when it comes to Somali issues, is Joshua Meservey, who recently moved from the Heritage Foundation to the right-wing Hudson Institute.

“The arguments for Somaliland in American terms are very compelling,” he maintains. “I think the question of recognition will definitely be discussed, although the North Star is best for the national interests of the United States in practical terms.”

Senior African officials under Trump mark one, including former Undersecretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy and Africa Envoy Peter Pham, who are strong supporters of Somaliland independence.

Like many American Republicans, Somaliland’s Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan sees the relationship in transactional terms.

“If the deal is good for us, we will accept it. If the United States wants a military base here, we will give it to them.”

Supporters of recognition argue that Somaliland lies at the site of several converging American interests: economic, military and strategic.

Meservey adds that the territory should be “rewarded” for adhering to democratic principles, not relying on foreign aid and having a small government.

Its long coastline runs along one of the busiest shipping routes in the world.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels may have replaced Somali pirates as the main traffic disruptor in the area, but the attacks remain a major threat to global trade and bring the region closer to war in the Middle East. East.

The fight over foreign bases along the Horn of Africa coast worries the United States, which established its largest military facility on the continent in Djibouti in 2002.

Russia has its eyes on Port Sudan; the United Arab Emirates (UAE) used Eritrea’s Assab to fight the Houthis and Djibouti is teeming with foreign forces, including the Chinese, who not only have a well-located military facility but also manage the huge port.

Türkiye’s largest base on foreign soil stretches along the coast of Somalia, just south of Mogadishu.

Dealing with a rising China is one of Trump’s top priorities.

The United States has accused the Chinese of interfering with its activities in Djibouti by shining lasers into the eyes of its air force pilots and is set to act elsewhere.

He also wants to thwart China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over much of Africa.

The Red Sea port of Berbera, whether considered part of Somaliland or Somalia, has much to offer as an alternative.

China is not there; In fact, it is outrageous that Taiwan established diplomatic relations with the separatist republic in 2020.

The United Arab Emirates, a key U.S. ally, manages the newly expanded port and hopes it will rival Djibouti.

During the Biden administration, senior US officials, including the head of the US Africa Command (Africom), paid visits to Berbera, which has a 4-kilometre airstrip ironically built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

The United States later identified this as an emergency landing site for space shuttles, interesting given Trump ally Elon Musk’s obsession with space.

In 2022, the US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, improving security cooperation and potentially paving the way for stronger diplomatic and economic ties.

Recognition Republicans have presented Somaliland as a good business case, hoping to appeal to Trump’s negotiating approach. Project 2025 used the term “coverage.”

A US-based diplomat in Somaliland said: “It depends on how they sell it to you. They have to make it attractive; they have to seduce you.”

Whether he’s serious or not, raising the explosive question of recognition would probably suit Trump as a disruptor.

It would undoubtedly catch his attention and he could boast of being the first.

It would also enrage Somalia, a country it included on its 2018 list of “shithole” nations and a place to which it wants to deport undocumented Somalis, rejected asylum seekers and criminals.

In Somaliland there is already talk that the territory will be used as a “dumping ground” for these people in exchange for recognition by the United States.

American academic Ken Menkhaus, who has followed Somali issues for decades, brings much-needed balance to the debate.

“It is very likely that we will see significant changes in US policy towards Somaliland and Somalia,” he says.

“Mr. Trump is deeply suspicious of foreign aid, skeptical of state-building, and a neo-isolationist.”

The Horn of Africa needs to be prepared for change.

Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including Everything You Have Told Me Is True, a look at life under al-Shabab.