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Mexico is running to provide additional housing for tens of thousands of people in cities near the US border, one of which has declared a state of emergency ahead of Donald Trump’s plan to remove the number of migrants.
Planning officials said at least 60,000 more homes are being prepared after the US president-elect promised the biggest deportations in the country’s history, targeting people in the US illegally and through criminal records.
About half of the 11 million illegal immigrants in the US are Mexican. About 662,000 non-US citizens have been convicted or face pending criminal charges, to follow Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
This week the city of Tijuana declared a state of emergency due to the expected arrivals, while in nearby Mexicali, the mayor said the city would convert a convention center to accommodate the people.
Two people with knowledge of the planning said that the federal government is temporarily hoping to open 25 shelters, each with a capacity of 2,500 people, to accommodate people of Mexico has been expelled, but it remains quiet and flexible as the numbers remain uncertain.
The government declined to comment and referred the FT to President Claudia Sheinbaum’s public messages on the matter.
Trump, whose inauguration is on Monday, has threatened Mexico with 25% tariffs on all goods exported to the United States if it does not do more to stop immigration. drugs out of bounds. He has legal options for deporting people, including administrative orders and public health restrictions.
Sheinbaum has generally taken a stronger public response to Trump than any other world leader, suggesting retaliatory charges.
The brand leader said his team has a plan to respond to the eviction but would not give details ahead of time. The government will have to deal with congestion while implementing two budget cuts for the foreign ministry and the National Migration Agency.
A planned “panic button” program for migrants to alert agents nearby if they believe they are about to be detained for deportation has not yet been launched due to technical problems. Additional lawyers will be present in Mexico’s 53 offices in the US.
The government even released a a new national anthem for immigrants.
“We’ve been working for months, since President Trump’s announcement, on getting our citizens back in the right way,” Sheinbaum said this week. “Of course, we do not agree (with deportation).”
Trump’s tough stance on the border was the sole driver of his victory in the November election, after crossing America to record levels during the presidency of Joe Biden. But the division created by Mexico at the behest of Washington, along with expanded legal routes, has reduced the irregular crossings in the past year.
The US has carried out deportations for most of its history, and a record number was removed in the 2012 fiscal year under President Barack Obama, when ICE deported more than 409,000 people. In fiscal year 2024, Biden has removed more than 271,000 people, according to US government data.
However, the status and status of the migrants to be deported can change significantly.
During Trump’s first term, Mexico turned back immigrants from around the world, initially waiting for asylum applications and later pushed across the border during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sheinbaum suggested this month that he would be open to admitting other nationalities, but it was unclear whether Mexico would take back citizens deported inside the US as well as those near the border.
Returning migrants to their home countries creates additional legal and practical problems for the US where those countries are repressive regimes or do not have friendly relations with Washington.
“If a Venezuelan or a Nicaraguan is arrested in Chicago after living five years in the US, and it is impossible to fly them to Caracas or Managua, do the authorities expect Mexico to take them as well?” said Adam Isacson, director of security oversight at Washington’s Latin America Office.
The numbers may not rise immediately, as Trump faces challenges including a lack of detention space, flights and cooperation from other law enforcement agencies.
Chad Wolf, Trump’s former secretary of national security, suggested the primary goal would be to exceed Obama-era deportation rates.
“My thinking is if they can win that in the first year, then it’s a win,” he told the FT. “They will have to raise it to a place where it has not been placed before. . . everything will take time. ”
The economic and social effects of the project can be significant for both parties. US industries such as construction and agriculture rely on undocumented workers, while remittances to Mexico were worth $63bn by 2023 – more than foreign investment or tourism.
People who work with immigrants in Mexico have said that thousands of people could be at risk of being recruited by gangs if they are dumped in northern cities that are rife with organized crime.
Mexico has historically lacked infrastructure to integrate returning citizens, according to Maggie Loredo, an activist who works with deported migrants in Mexico.
“There is basically nothing for people who are incarcerated,” he said. “Those people are also in a vulnerable position.”
Andrew Selee, Director of the Washington-based Migration Policy Center, said additional deportations will require housing, transportation, identification documents, job fairs and mental health resources.
“The Mexican government (does) . . . it needs to prepare for the next six months,” he said, adding that it needs to “find ways to integrate immigrants from other countries who will live in Mexico”.
