Optimism but not confidence when Trump takes over

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free

Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

The author is a contributing editor for the FT, chief economist at American Compass and writes for the journal Understanding America.

Washington was hopeful this week, but not pessimistic. At parties and parties where gossip is the main currency, and podcasts where everyone sells their spin, positivity reigned. “Trump really has a chance to . . ,” people say. “There are a lot of factors.”

There is no doubt that this is a “change of mind”, as the description suggests, especially compared to the presidency which is slowly and painfully coming to an end. The return of a president who can do absolutely anything will be a huge improvement forever. But the great potential of a renewed administration to usher in a new “golden age,” as Trump’s team likes to put it, doesn’t match the certainty of how his administration can move forward.

Everyone wants to talk about artificial intelligence, for example – although it is less because of the excitement of higher intelligence than because of the many possibilities of improved production. The point is that continuing to improve the models and expand their potential for widespread use will require Herculean infrastructure investments over unheard of periods.

In one possible world, Donald Trump and his team have focused their economic plan on construction: rapidly developing natural resources, expanding infrastructure, supporting investment and training workers. That might make a lot of sense, but it’s not something they talked about much. Trump himself has had the opportunity to focus his enthusiasm on cryptocurrency, while high-profile supporters such as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have used much of their influence to criticize American culture and call for foreign workers. to the country.

Likewise, separating the US and Chinese economies has become a priority and Trump has expressed his support for this, including a call to cancel China’s terms of “normal normal relations”. business” in the Republican party platform. However, even though he issued an executive order in 2020 to ban TikTok, he has emerged as its savior. A law that required the parent company, ByteDance, to provide services to the American firm or else shut down by January 19th made the platform go dark that day. Users received notice that the company is eager to work with Trump to restore it. And Trump now says he will do just that. In response, ByteDance brought TikTok back online, to the delight of users.

Is Trump a China hawk determined to undo the mistakes of globalization, even if Americans have to suffer as they climb out of the hole they dug for themselves? Or is he more interested in scoring points like the president who protected TikTok after his successor let it languish?

There are many similar questions. Will the fight to expand the 2017 Tax and Jobs Act dominate the legislative calendar for the first year? Will the government use humanitarian tactics to deport illegal immigrants to maintain public support for that action, or continue with tactics designed to stir up resentment and division?

Will the administration simply be happy to attack the excesses of the higher education system, or will it work equally hard to build new and beneficial non-college pathways to good jobs? Will the “Department of Government Development” focus on the success of the government or will it cause constant chaos outside its ranks?

Reasons for optimism lie in the quality of Trump’s high-profile polls, which represent a dramatic improvement over his first term. If executive leadership and executive leadership went from Mike Pence to JD Vance, Rex Tillerson to Marco Rubio, or Reince Priebus to Susie Wiles, a new golden age might be in the offing. upon us.

Although in 2016 Trump passed the supply chain of supporting organizations, ideas and personnel, he can now draw from a deep bench of talent and a thick playbook that aligns with his priorities. Across agencies and White House offices, he keeps his team stocked with strong players.

But the team captain, coach and quarterback is still Trump himself. Not many people have done well betting on the decisions he will make in the Oval Office, least of all when he predicts that he will do what conventional wisdom suggests. The fruits are bigger and juicier and hanging than ever before, and now everyone is waiting to see what you will choose.