Trump’s confrontation with Colombia is a warning to all leaders

Less than a week after assuming the presidency, Donald Trump has instigated his first international tariff dispute. And the target is not China, Mexico or Canada – frequent objects of his ire – but Colombia, one of the United States’ closest allies in South America.

Colombia’s crime was refusing to allow two U.S. flights carrying deported migrants to land because they were military transport planes, not civilians. That appears to have been enough for Trump to drop the gavel.

“We will not allow the Colombian government to violate its legal obligations regarding the acceptance and return of the criminals it forced into the United States,” Trump posted on his social media site.

In addition to the 25% tariffs he said he would impose, Trump said the United States would introduce a travel ban and “immediate visa revocations” on Colombian government officials, as well as its allies and supporters.

During his first week in office, the US president appeared to be prioritizing executive action on immigration over trade measures, even if the latter were a key campaign promise. As if to drive that point home, the first major tariffs he announced are being enacted to punish a nation he believes is insufficiently supportive of America’s new hardline immigration policies.

On a day in which Trump did not have public appearances (he is at his Miami resort, after having played a round of golf in the morning), the president has decided to set an example for Colombia.

He is giving a warning to both allies and adversaries of the United States: if they do not cooperate with the United States, the consequences will be serious.

This is a formidable challenge for Colombia, but it is also a test for the new Trump administration.

If his sanctions lead to higher prices for American consumers, will the American public object? Will they be willing to tolerate any financial pain incurred to promote Trump’s immigration priorities?

The United States imports about 27% of its coffee from Colombia, according to the US Department of Agriculture, as well as other products such as bananas, crude oil, avocados and flowers. Coffee imports alone are worth almost $2bn (£1.6bn).

Importers could turn to other sources to avoid this, which would affect Colombian producers by reducing a key market.

Colombian President Gustavo responded quickly on Sunday afternoon, launching his own retaliatory attack in the war of words.

It is no secret that Petro does not like Donald Trump: in the past he has harshly criticized his policies on migration and the environment. That just increased.

In a lengthy response to

Petro described himself as “stubborn” and said that while Trump could try to “stage a coup” with “economic strength and arrogance,” in short, he would fight back.

Not only did Petro appear to threaten to impose his own retaliatory tariffs, but, more significantly, he said: “As of today, Colombia is open to the entire world, with open arms.”

While Trump is unlikely to accept threats from Colombia, this is something that should concern a US president who wants to address migration. Officials in his incoming administration have made clear that the mission will require looking beyond the border with Mexico.

Trump’s nominee for deputy secretary of state, Christopher Landau, has long argued that “working with other countries to stop such migration flows” should be a “global imperative of U.S. foreign policy.” Sunday’s dispute could make working together much less likely.

Every year, tens of thousands of migrants from around the world, from India to China, head north to the United States after landing in South America and traveling through Colombia through the Darien Gap, a key point just north of the border between Panama and Colombia. It is a dangerous journey usually facilitated by criminal gangs.

The United States’ retaliatory measures will undoubtedly make it more difficult for the Trump administration to work with Colombia to stop this pattern.

President Petro alluded to this in his response to Trump’s actions, noting that if talks on managing migration through the Darien were suspended, “illegal activities will increase.” Those comments could be seen as a veiled threat that more undocumented immigrants will be on the way.

Petro was quick to say that his country would not reject Colombian citizens deported from the United States, only that they should receive “dignified treatment.” He even offered to use his presidential plane as an alternative means of transportation.

However, according to senior US officials, speaking to CBS, the BBC’s US partner, that is not enough to avoid sanctions.

Still, despite a Sunday of high drama, there appears to be a way to de-escalate this sudden diplomatic showdown, if egos and national pride don’t get in the way.

But these types of tariffs are a test of will. And, from the looks of it, this is just Trump’s initial move.