Trump rates: Who is winning the cold war to trade?

President Donald Trump has suspended strong tariffs in Mexico and Canada for 30 days that threatened last minute negotiations with the two American neighbors.

You can point out concessions on the application of the border and crime as Victoria. But Justin Trudeau de Canada and Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico can also claim political victories.

A commercial war that would send economic shock waves through North America and beyond is waiting, for now.

So who flicked first and what happens next?

By Courtney Subramanian, BBC News, Washington DC

The high -risk confrontation of President Trump with the closest commercial partners in the United States seems to have been worth it, with Mexico and Canada they agree a more strict border security and taking greater measures to address fentanyl traffic.

The strategy to take advantage of the economy of the United States to force the concessions of other countries obtains a victory for the “America First America” ​​agenda of Trump, which allows you to follow the central national problems without US consumers feeling the sting of the economic consequences of a continental commercial war.

His tariff play book is not new.

Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum during their first mandate caused a violent reaction from Mexico, Canada and the European Union, but economists say these measures had a more limited range.

This time, Trump has promised radical tariffs on goods in Mexico and Canada, and China, which is still scheduled to see an increase in the 10% rate in the goods from midnight on Tuesday.

But it is not clear if Trump will follow his threats to Canada and Mexico once the 30 -day deadline increases. This uncertainty agitates the fears that could see companies reducing their dependence on US markets, stops investing in the construction of new factories or hiring workers until the commercial confrontation becomes clearer.

By Jessica Murphy, BBC News, Toronto

That was not an explosion of the North Arctic of the North: it was a generalized sigh of relief of Canadian politicians and business leaders in the 30 -day pause on US tariffs.

While the threat of tariffs remains, Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, can claim a political victory: a temporary truce in what is emerging as a devastating commercial war.

Canadian politicians have been struggling to discover what would satisfy Trump exactly, a situation not helped by Canada’s internal policy, with Trudeau concluding his last weeks in power as Prime Minister of Lame Duck.

Border security measures announced on Monday are not all new.

In December, Canada announced C $ 1.3 billion ($ 900 million; £ 700 million) in measures that included efforts to interrupt the fentanyl trade, new tools for the application of the law and better coordination with the application of the law of The United States.

Canadian surveillance drones and two Black Hawk helicopters recently began to patrol the boundary between the two countries.

Officials have cited those efforts for weeks to demonstrate that Trump’s border concerns are taking seriously.

A new element seems to be the appointment of a “fentanyl tsar” and an intelligence directive of C $ 200 million to combat organized crime and fentanyl.

A question that remains is what this means for the future of the Canada-United States relationship. The association among the allies has been deeply shaken by Trump’s economic threats.

By Will Grant, correspondent for the BBC Central América and Cuba, Mexico City

Throughout this commercial crisis, President Claudia Sheinbaum has asked “great heads” and “calm.”

Even Friday, he said he trusted a last -minute break of 25% tariffs on Mexican goods. And he demonstrated, after a morning phone call with President Trump.

When announcing the agreement shortly after, I could barely clean the smile of his face and his supporters have announced what they see as a master class on how to negotiate with Donald Trump.

Yes, he agreed to send National Guard troops to the border to focus on the Fentanyl contract, but crucial also assured what Trump wanted.

In addition to the obvious, a pause in tariff .

But another vital merchandise was also bought: time.

Now he has several weeks to take advantage of the agreed points in that phone call and convert the temporal control of tariffs into a permanent one.

The expectation is that now the Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Mexico soon to discuss these matters and a group on Fentanil will be established with Mexican and American health and health officials.

If, in fact, Sheinbaum manages to avoid more commercial hostilities, he will become the first significant victory of his new government, since he has only been in office since October. And you can establish the tone for future interactions with President Trump and his administration.