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The Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are preparing for possible sabotage and cyber attacks this weekend, since they complete their long -awaited decoupling of the Russian electricity grid.
Baltic states will be completely disconnected from the “Brell” energy network controlled by Moscow on Saturday, before completing their connection with the European Electricity System on Sunday.
The movement is seen as a crucial way of strengthening its electricity systems, guaranteeing the independence and safety of energy, and dismantling the remains of the post -Somovietic era that have connected the Baltic states to Russia.
Gert Auväärt, head of the Estonia cyber security center, told CNBC that the country was working closely with its neighbors in the cybersecurity domain to prepare for potential risk scenarios when decoupling occurs.
“The transition has been planned thoroughly, and experts evaluate the probability of serious problems such as low. However, Russia can try to exploit this period to create uncertainty,” he said in the comments sent by email on Thursday.
“Thanks to a strong national and international cooperation, Estonia is well prepared even for the worst scenarios, although this does not mean that such threats will materialize,” he added.
If Russia will allow the transcendental disconnection of the Baltic “Brell”, an acronym for Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which refers to its 2001 agreement to synchronize their electrical networks, remains to be seen without an answer.
But Russia’s retaliation potential is being taken seriously by Baltic Energy Ministries and transmission system operators such as Elering, Estonia’s state network operator.
“The preparations are complete and we are ready for deincronization”, Kalle Kilk, leading of elering, said in a statement on Thursdaydescribing the process as a “unique company in the recent history of energy, in terms of its scale and complexity.”
“Although important technical changes always imply certain risks, we have thoroughly analyzed them and developed appropriate action plans. With a planned transition, the average electricity consumer should not notice any change.”
“However, what cannot be predicted one hundred percent is a situation in which energy is used as a weapon. Therefore, what is dangerous is not so disconnected from Russia, because we have been preparing for this during Years, but we continue to connect to Russia’s electricity system, “Kilk said.
CNBC has asked the Ministry of Energy of Kremlin and Russia and is waiting for an answer.
Countdown to ‘energy independence’
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the EU in 2004, changing the dial in the relations of nations with Russia indefinitely.
Since then, states have sought to align their electrical networks with the rest of the EU. The block provided More than 1.2 billion euros ($ 1.24 billion) in grants For synchronization, which is considered a strategic priority.
The Lithuan Energy Minister, Zygimantas Viciunas (RL) speaks at the Joint Press Conference for the Baltic Energy Ministers Meeting with the Minister of Climate and Energy of Latvia, Kaspars Melnis, the Minister of the Estone Climate, Yoko Alender and the Secretary of State in the Ministry of Climate and Environment of the Environment, Krzystof Bolesta in in in in January 2025.
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The sense of urgency around decoupling was accelerated after the invasion of Russia of Ukraine in 2022, with the conflict that caused fears among other former Soviet republics, including Bótanos, which could also face a similar Russian aggression in the future.
Lithuania, Latvia and the continuous use of the energy infrastructure of the Soviet era was also considered a source of great insecurity, with concerns that Russia could interrupt energy supplies at will.
It is considered that the Baltic states are in the “First Line” with Russia and its ally Belarus (Latvia has a border with both, Estonia borders Russia, while Lithuania shares a border with Belarus and the Russian excavator of Kalinning) and her old Soviet state. It is an objective for “hybrid” threat activities, ranging from cyber attacks to suspects of sabotage of power and communication cables under the Baltic Sea.
Cybernetic attacks against Estonia increased in 2022 after Russia’s large -scale invasion in Ukraine, he told CNBC of Estonia.
“These went from attacks of DDOS promoted by hacktivists (denial of distributed service) to more sophisticated and specific operations against government agencies and companies. Although Estonia has become an expert in counteracting these threats, the level of general risk remains high It is often difficult.
Final Chapter
With the energy systems of Baltic and Russia that remain interconnected despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia planned decoupling more than 30 years later is significant and symbolic.
“The movement of the three Baltic states will be the culmination of the efforts of several years and billionaires to delineate the critical energy infrastructure of the networks of the Soviet era, which is considered a source of insecurity,” Andrius tursa, central and central and the Eastern European advisor, the risk consultant, Teneo said in comments sent by email this week.
“Countries have increased the physical and cybernetic security of their energy systems in advance of possible external interruption efforts during this highly symbolic and technically complex transition,” he said.
The disconnection of the Russian network will take place on Saturday morning, starting in Lithuania and ending in Estonia. Baltic states will carry out frequency and voltage of the joint during the weekend “to evaluate the procedure and technique measures of the Baltic states to maintain the frequency and their ability to face independently,” said the operator of the Elering Network.
Electric line towers of the Kurzeme Circle (Kurzemes Loks) on June 18, 2020 in Tukums, near Riga, Latvia. Latvia completed a new high voltage energy line to Estonia at the end of 2020, in another attempt to align Baltic electricity networks with the residents of the European Union instead of Russia.
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The deconization process is completed on Sunday afternoon when the Baltic states connect and synchronize their networks with the continental European network, known as the synchronous network of continental Europe or UCTE.
The Minister of Climate and Energy of Latvia, Kaspars, Melnis, said that there had already been attempts to disseminate the wrong information about change, stating that “in complex geopolitical conditions, it is true that society is more vulnerable and, as the established date For the conclusion of the synchronization project.
“Therefore, we urge the public to treat information critically, not fall into the lack of any pronouncement of charges emotionally and do not share news that has not been verified,” he said in the comments in the comments Published on the website of the Latvian AST grid operator.
The synchronization with the rest of the continent was crucial for the Baltic, he added, and “aims to ensure that we can maintain and control the grid ourselves, ensure stability and that we do not depend on the actions of our neighbors.”
There is a palpable relief about the next synchronization among Baltic Energy Operators; The AST grid operator even presents a countdown to the “energy independence of the Baltic states” on your website.
