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Somalia analyst
Finding and fighting the militants who have become the heartbeat of the Islamic State (IS) group in Africa can be hard work, since they hide in the mountains of the Northeast of Somalia.
But in the typical style of Donald Trump, after the new president of the United States ordered an air attack in the area last weekend, he published on social networks: “We will find you and we will kill you!”
Trump said the coup, less than two weeks in his mandate, had attacked a senior is an attack planner and other militants in the semi -autonomous region of Puntlanda Somalia and “destroyed the caves in which they live and killed many terrorists without , in no way, in no way, damaging civilians. “
He boasted of having succeeded where former American president Joe Biden had failed.
“Biden and his cronies would not act quickly enough to do the job. I did it!”
The fact that Somalia was the objective of the first important military operation of the United States under the new administration surprised many in the country who feared that the United States planned to abandon them.
In his first mandate, Trump withdrew around 700 US troops, a decision reversed by his successor.
The $ 600,000 agreement (£ 492,000) a year, the Somalia government recently signed with the main lobbying firm of Washington, the BGR group, is an indication of how worried it is.
Under Biden, American troops in Somalia were carrying out special operations, training a Somali elite force and performing regular air attacks.
A day before air attack, the Washington Post published an interview with President Somalí Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in which he begged for the United States “not to take out US advisors and consultants who support the training of our special forces.”
An X publication from its office after the strike also had a touch of despair in this regard, recognizing “unwavering support from the United States in the fight against international terrorism” and welcome “the continuous commitment under the decisive leadership of the president Donald Trump “.
But air attacks are different from the troops on the ground and Trump did not stop air bombings in their first mandate. In fact, it increased them to almost 400.
“The strike does not mean that the United States government intensifies its military commitment in Somalia,” says Matt Bryden, strategic advisor to Sahan Research with headquarters in Nairobi.
“Several US officials hoped to assume leadership positions in African affairs no longer perceive that the Federal Government of Somalia is a credible partner and are deeply critical of high levels of security assistance provided in recent years to very little appreciable effect.”
The anti -terrorism approach of Puntlandia is different from that of the National Somali government, with which it reduced the ties in March last year.
It is more self -sufficient and is not so dependent on the support of the troops of the African Union, of which around 12,000 are on the ground, and global powers, including the United States and Turkey.
As Mohamed Mubarak, head of the Puntland Security Coordination Office, points out that they are northeast troops who have been fighting for years with little help or thanks to others.
“It is not fair to put the air attack in front and the center while we have been fighting and dying on the floor,” says Mubarak.
“Regardless of what the rest of the world is doing, we are fighting, which is an international problem,” he says.
“We have not seen much support except Kenya, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. We do not know if Americans will carry out more than one air attack.”
Puntland says that his forces have captured 48 caves and are advanced positions, and destroyed dozens of drones and explosive devices, since he launched his large -scale offensive “Hilaac” or “Lightning” last year.
Although IS has been active in Somalia for approximately a decade, he has raised a threat less than the Islamist group al-Shabab, which controls large parts of the country and has been described as the most successful affiliate in Al-Qaeda.
However, in recent times, the IS has become more significant: local, regional and international.
Authorities in Puntland and unidentified American officials say that the leader of IS-Somalia, Abdulqadir Muismin, with orange guidance and glasses, is now the global head of IS.
The initial reports suggested that he had been killed in an American air attack last May, but have never been confirmed.
Whether or not Mune is the head of IS or is alive or dead, IS-Somalia has become increasingly worrying for foreign states.
As Trump said: “These murderers, whom we find hidden in caves, threatened the United States and our allies.”
According to Tricia Bacon, director of the Policy Anti-Terror Center at the American University in Washington DC, “IS-Somalia has assumed more responsibilities within the Islamic State Network, particularly in Africa, but beyond the continent.”
With the branches of Is operate throughout the continent, from Mozambique to Mali, from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Nigeria, IS-Somalia serves as a crucial nervous center.
Mrs. Bacon warns that Somalia is also looking beyond Africa.
“It is positioned to facilitate and contribute to the attacks of the SI in the West, including the United States. It also seeks to inspire attacks in the West,” he says.
“International partners should provide more support for continuous stresses from Puntland against the group.”
Bryden says that collusion with hutis rebels backed by Iranians through the Red Sea in Yemen is also a problem.
“Like Al-Shabab, IS-Somalia has received weapons and training from Hutis in Yemen, which is a source of concern for the United States government and their allies,” he says.
A growing number of foreign combatants bind to the group, improving their strength in terms of numbers and experience.
It is believed that an important source of Is-Somalia recruits are Ethiopian migrants, which meet in the Port City of Puntlandia with the hope of a sea crossing to a better life abroad.
IS offers them a better pay than they would win in the Gulf States and experts say that some of the group’s superior commanders are Ethiopians.
“We evaluate that somalia is 80% or more foreign combatants, mainly from North Africa, Ethiopia, Tanzania and the Middle East, in that order,” says Mubarak.
He estimates that the group has approximately 1,000 people; The UN monitors put it around 600 to 700.
Last October, the head of the US African command. UU., Michael Langley, said he thought he had grown up in Northern Somalia around “twice” in a year.
The group organized one of its most sophisticated attacks in December, hitting a military base in the Bari region of Puntlandia.
The group issued a statement by saying that there was not a single somali involved. The 12 attackers came from seven countries: Tanzania, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and Ethiopia.
The movement has also become more effective to raise money.
Experts in the United States, the UN and Somalia say that a key part of the Financial Infrastructure of IS, the A al -Karrar office, is based in Puntland, disbursing funds and experience in other branches of the group in Africa and beyond.
The United States Treasury Treasury Control Office (OFAC) said that IS-Somalia had raised almost $ 2 million in the first half of 2022 by taxing local businesses, imports, nomads and farmers.
If the forces of Puntlandia manage to get the militants, air support will be invaluable.
Shortly after the United States strike, Puntland Police said that the head of the IS-Somalia murder squad, Abdirahman Shirwa Aw-Said had surrendered.
But experts say that such strikes should be consistent to search ISSALY -IS cells and detain others in fungi.
It is not clear if the United States and its unpredictable leader have the appetite of continuing to bombard the mountains of the Northeast of Somalia.
Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including everything you have told me, it is true, a look at Life under Al-Shabab.