Could a Eagles Super Bowl victory tank in the stock market?

As one of the fans of the resident Eagles of CNBC, I was horrified to open my entrance tray earlier this week to find an email chain with the matter line, “why the bulls hate birds.”

The circulation between my colleagues was the data of the head of the Carson Group, Ryan Detrick, who said that Philadelphia Super Bowl and World Series Wins historically had coincided with the calamity of the stock market.

The 1929 stock market accident? The same year, the athletics of Philadelphia won the World Series. And 2018, the year the Eagles won their first Super Bowl, was the worst year for shares since 2008.

“Who should you support? Personally, I can’t bear any team, but I guess I will only say when Philly wins a really bad world series or world series tend to happen,” Detrick wrote in the publicationfollowed by this frightful table.

Look, I don’t hope that nobody puts on the side of Philadelphia fans. I have a Jason Kelce shirt that says: “Nobody liked it. We don’t care.” I understand, we are unpleasant.

But if you are going to support the chiefs in this case, it should not be because you are afraid to decrease in your wallet. After all, this little about the sports victories of Philadelphia and the slides of the stock market is only the last of a long line of “indicators” of actions that market experts launch for fun.

The things that really drive movement in the economy and stock markets – corporate gainsfeeling of consumption, interest rates – It may be dry. And those of us who write about these things like condiments from time to time with small cups of fun data history.

Of course, you could pay attention to what the Federal Reserve is doing. But what would happen if you could say what was going to happen differently?

Take the so -called hem indicator, which says that skirt styles tend to be shorter during the UP markets (think of the 20 years, the boom in the 80s) and the dresses become more modest during economic recessions. In that sense, perhaps the event to pay attention to this weekend is not the Super Bowl, but the New York fashion week.

Or you can ignore everything if you believe in the January barometer. This market truism suggests that the results of the year market calendar tend to follow what the shares did in January. Those are good news this year; The S&P 500 increased by approximately 3% in the first month of the year.

However, the historical correlation is helped by the fact that the market has historically lay the period up. The actions have produced positive returns of the calendar year 71% of the time since 1945, including 14 of 29 times that decreased in January.

As any of the stories related to these indicators will remember: past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Even if any of these indicators were reliable predictors of the movements of the stock market in the past (they were not), no one can say where the investments are directed in the future.

And even if you believed in this kind of thing, evidence against Philadelphia sports is more weak than it seems. Surely the Philis won the title in 2008, and that was a famous year for the actions. The global financial crisis and the associated bears market began in 2007, and the World Series is played in October.

And the Bear 2007-2009 market ended less than six months after the Philis won, in March 2009, so they could also argue that they helped change things.

Also, why only the World Series and the Super Bowl? Shouldn’t we consider the title of Sixers in 1983, a year that saw a 17% rise in S&P 500? What happens to 1975? The year the Flyers raised their second Stanley Cup, the market increased by 32% (after a 30% decrease, but who is counting?).

In addition, as Detrick points out, the classic Super Bowl indicator tells us that the market tends to favor NFC winners about AFC. That would favor the Eagles, although the last two years after the Chiefs titles have been quite spectacular for investors.

So what is the neutral fan of all this? Detrick would be the first to tell you: nothing. Its wallet does not move depending on how long are the dresses or who wins sporting events. So be free to choose a team based on a uniform color or the attractiveness of a field marshal or in your feelings about Taylor Swift.

In a nutshell, if the market tanks will not be because the Eagles raised the Lombardi trophy on Sunday. So tell me with me: Go Birds.

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