Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Alice Weidel, candidate for the Chancellor of the Alternative Political Party of the extreme right for Germany (AFD), speaks with supporters while stirring the German flags in the demonstration of launch of the AFD electoral campaign.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty images
The extreme right party of Germany is dominating the surveys in the eastern region of the country less than two weeks before the federal elections of February 23, and economic concerns have played a role in their popularity.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the economy in Eastern Germany collapsed widely as local companies and businesses hesitated and unemployment shot up. Although the federal government spent hundreds of billions of euros that drive the economy of the region and develop its infrastructure, agitation has left a sour taste in the mouth of many of the region.
“Since the transformation of the 1990s, economic insecurity has been a regular feeling among part of the Eastern German population,” Weisskircher, a political scientist from your Dresde, told CNBC.
This has played in the hands of Germany’s alternative Fuer Deutschland (AFD) and other marginal parties that historically tend to work much better in Eastern Germany.
The Germans will cast two votes in the surveys next week: one for which the candidate will directly represent his constituency and another for a party.
The latest surveys and models of Yogov From the vote of the constituency it shows something like a blue right wall in eastern Germany. In most oriental constituencies, AFD candidates are at the head. However, this is not the case throughout the country.
The CDU, with its affiliated party, the CSU, is the national leader center With about 30% of the votes, while the AFD is in second place with around 20%, which reflects growing support for the party throughout the country. The AFD was obtained just over 10% of the votes in the last Federal Choice.
It is unlikely to join the next ruling coalition, since so far conventional parties have refused to associate with the AFD.
Economic perceptions versus reality
After German reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Eastern Germany economy was characterized by lower income, greater unemployment and weaker growth compared to the West.
Since then, these problems have disappeared to a large extent, and factors such as economic growth and unemployment are no longer important concerns, according to Holger Schmieding, Berenberg chief economist.
The IFO Economic Research Institute in Germany is projecting an economic growth of 0.7% in Eastern Germany This year, more than expected for the country in general. Data From the Federal Employment Agency of Germany it shows that the unemployment rate in East Germany has been reduced by half of its maximums from its maximums, with the gap compared to unemployment in the West.
Somehow, Eastern Germany states are actually ahead of their western counterparts, Schmieding said.
“Adjusted by the cost of living, the living standards of Eastern Germany are no longer substantially below those of the West. The infrastructure is usually newer and in a better way than in most west,” he told CNBC.
However, residents in Eastern Germany still have a negative perception of the economy, according to 2024 Research carried out by the German Economic Institute (IW). Less than a third of Eastern Germany respondents said they were satisfied with how the labor market has been developed, and only one in five people said they thought they lived in a region with emerging growth.
Matthias Diameier, head of the Research Unit for Democracy, Society and Market Economics in IW, told CNBC that, although AFD supporters are only a little more concerned about their personal economic situation, compared to comparison Others, “his perception of the economy in general is much worse.”
The vast majority of AFD voters say they are strongly concerned about the economy in general, while those who support other parties are at the other end of this spectrum, added Démorier.
AFD capitalizes economic insecurity
In spite of what IW refers as a clear process of economic recovery, inequalities between Eastern and Western Germans remain Dioresier.
“This is seen as unfair, unfair … for the supporters of the marginal parties, but it is also a feeling that is very active by these political actors,” he explained, adding that the extreme right has worked to trigger pre -existing feelings of insecurity economic, be a “second class citizen” and social deterioration among voters.
“And this is what they do very successfully,” said Diar.
At the same time, the AFD questions the precision of positive economic news and, given the perception that the economy is not far away, plays an “easy game” by stating that conventional parties, statistics agencies and other bodies controlled by the Status are misleading voters, he said.
The AFD did not respond to the request for CNBC comments.
Weisskircher of your Dresde also pointed out that the historical context is a significant factor.
“The economy is important, rather because Other issues, “he said.
Anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-climatic change
It is not just economic concerns that have promoted the success of AFD in Eastern Germany.
The opposition to immigration is much greater in East Germany, and conventional parties have less loyal basis in the region, where they were not so present before national reunification, said Weisskircher.
Skepticism regarding climate change and green energy policies are also part of the AFD campaign. The particular wind turbines have become a played topic, with the main candidate of the AFD, Alice Weidel, for the next elections that ask them to be demolished.
The AFD also positions itself as the party that represents those who have been left behind.
A growing number of Eastern Germans is leaving more rural regions in favor of the main cities, explained Berenberg’s Schmieding, and this has weighed local businesses, services and development. The remaining ones in these areas are main objectives for the Rhetoric of the AFD and, as Diomeier de IW said, the investigation has shown that these demography are more likely to vote for the extreme right.
