South Africa-Trump Land Row can go from trade aid

South Africa seems to be on a hint in its hair removal and decrease with the United States after the controversial decision of President Donald Trump last week to reduce financial aid to the country.

Trump said South Africa was looking for what he called “unfair and immoral practices” against the Afrikaner community of white minority and presenting a case of genocide against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICI) in December 2023.

His movement has sent shock waves in South Africa, with experts who fear that he can take this opportunity to end preferential access to the US market through its special US trade in the United States and Africa as the Law on Growth and Opportunities for Africa (Auga).

The two countries have generally had friendly relations since the end of the white minorization rule in 1994, when the Anti-Apartheid icon and the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize Nelson Mandela were elected the first black president of South Africa.

Although the United States took another 14 years to eliminate Mandela from their “terrorist surveillance list” for their role in the fight against the racist system of Apartheid, which had been introduced by the then rulers of South Africa in 1948.

The last tension exploded a few days after the inauguration of Trump last month when the president of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa signed by law the draft expropriation lawwhich allows the government to confiscate land without compensation in certain circumstances.

Trump’s response came last week When he threatened to reduce future financing On what he called “terrible things, horrible things” that was doing the country’s leadership.

The president of the United States also accused South Africa, without any de facto base, of “confiscating land” and “doing things that may be very worse than that.”

He doubled in the face of the vehement refutation of the South African government and signed an executive order last Friday freezing help.

This adds to almost $ 440 million (£ 353 million), the amount of help assigned in 2023, although the United States embassy in South Africa has subsequently said that Pepfar’s financing, an American program that counteracts the global propagation of HIV, will not be affectedadding the warning that “not all Pepfar activities will resume.”

South Africa is one of Pepfar’s biggest beneficiaries, which contributes approximately 17% to its HIV/AIDS program in which around 5.5 million people receive antiretrovirals.

In his executive order, Trump also accused South Africa of a “shocking contempt for the rights of his citizens” and taking “aggressive positions” against the United States and his ally Israel in his case ICJ.

In addition to the freezing of aid, Trump offered to help refugees from the Afrikaner community, who are most of the white descendants of the first Dutch and French settlers, to establish themselves in the United States.

His position has played in the hands of the conservative Lobby Afrikaner groups, including Afriforum and solidarity, who want the government to repeal what it calls “breed -based laws”, such as affirmative action and black economic empowerment.

This intervenes with the opinions of Trump’s nearby advisor, Elon Musk, the technological billionaire who was born in South Africa. He questioned X why Ramaphosa had “openly racist property laws.”

This is not the first time that the Agrarian Reform Policy of South Africa has attracted Trump’s anger.

In 2018, during his first presidency, He accused the South African authorities of the “large -scale murder of farmers” and asked his then secretary of state to investigate the government issue to “take over the land of white farmers.”

While Trump’s comments caused a violent reaction at that time, Dr. Oscar Van Heerden, a political analyst at Johannesburg University, told the BBC that “it had never been this type of radical action taken to the point of signing a Executive order “.

With their relationship now in a precarious state, both countries are weighing their next movement.

On the commercial front, Donald Mackay, CEO of the Commercial Consulting firm based in Johannesburg, XA Global Trade Advisors, said that although the United States was one of the largest partners in South Africa, it was not his “closest commercial partner” .

South Africa exports a variety of minerals to the United States, including platinum, iron and manganese.

It is also one of the largest exporters in Agaa, which generates around $ 2.7 billion in revenues in 2023, mainly for the sale of vehicles, jewelry and metals.

“Over the years, that relationship has become and decreased. It has never been terribly strong (since the white minority rule ended in South Africa). But at the same time, I think it never deteriorated as much as in the last Years and I don’t think it’s South Africa’s fault, “Mackay told the BBC.

But he admitted that South Africa had done “a lot” in recent years to irritate the United States.

“These irritations accumulate and under President Trump … this looks like an opportunity to put South Africa in place.”

Dr. Van Heerden reduced the change in the dynamics in part to the “global changes” and the “new competition that leads against the United States” of the tastes of China, India and Brazil.

While the experts talked about the benefits of Agaa, which will be presented for review at the end of this year, they agreed that the impact may not be as significant as some fear.

Auga was introduced in 2000 And offers eligible access to sub -Saharan Africa countries free of taxes to the USA. For more than 1,800 products.

Mackay said it would be surprised if South Africa continues to benefit from this preferential agreement after the review.

“My instinct is that whatever the reason Trump is upset with South Africa, at this time, it would be the easiest mechanism to use South Africa.”

Dr. Van Heerden added that even if the agreement was not renewed, or South Africa ended up being excluded, those companies that would currently benefit from it would suffer short -term losses, but would recover in a few years.

He said that at this time the government of President Ramaphosa was opting for the diplomatic route, although the apparent lack of interest of the Trump administration in diplomacy drastically reduced the possibilities of success.

This has probably not been helped by South Africa Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola, Filling Wednesday to Trump’s move, saying that “there was no possibility” of South Africa withdrawing his case against Israel in the ICJ.

“Put on our principles sometimes it has consequences, but we are still firm that this is important for the world and the rule of law”, ” Lamola told Financial Times.

South Africa has accused Israel to commit genocide against the Palestinians living in Gaza, an accusation that Israel denies.

Meanwhile, Ramaphosa, in his capacity as President of the G20, has announced that he will send a delegation worldwide to clarify the national and foreign policies of South Africa, with Washington as a key stop.

South Africa assumed the presidency of the G20, a cohort of countries that meet to discuss global economic and political issues, in December last year, seeing it as an opportunity to reinforce its international position.

But in a Desaite to South Africa, the United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, announced that he will not attend a meeting of the G20 of Foreign Ministers next week in Johannesburg.

“My work is to advance in the national interests of the United States, not waste taxpayers money or encode anti -Americanism,” he said.

South Africa is part of BRICS and the alliance of the main developing countries, including Brazil, Russia, India and China, which tries to challenge the political and economic power of the richest nations in North America and Western Europe.

Mackay believes that it will be difficult for South Africa and other nations to navigate relations with the United States under “the most unpredictable politician in the world”, which suggests that BRICS will have to do more and more as an alternative partner.

But significantly for South Africa, the European Union (EU), one of its largest commercial partners, has reaffirmed its support for the country.

António Costa, president of the European Council, which establishes the General Political Directorate and EU priorities – Posted in X on Monday that he had spoken with Ramaphosa on the phone to highlight the “EU commitment to deepen ties with South Africa.”

If South Africa’s charm offensive fails, Van Heerden suggests that the government could choose to “negotiate hard” and use the minerals that supplies the United States as a “negotiation chip.”

But he expresses a warning: “South Africa will have to think very carefully about how they play this chess game (where) the opening gambit has already been made by President Trump and Elon Musk.”