Zelenskyy faces the dangerous probabilities of re -election such as the US

Almost a year after the president’s expiration Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s The first five -year period, the United States and Russia agree that Ukrainians must go to the polls and decide whether to maintain their head of state.

Russia has insisted that it will not sign a peace agreement To Ukraine He accepts to celebrate elections, and the United States is now “floating” the idea of ​​a three -stage plan: fire, then the Ukrainian elections and then the entry of a peace agreement.

It was supposed that Zelenskyy’s mandate would end last May, and the elections originally scheduled for April 2024. But President’s assistants have said that the elections will not be held until six months after the end of the martial law. The Ukrainian Constitution prohibits holding elections under martial law.

With its popularity having fallen almost 40% from the outbreak of the war, the future of Zelenskyy could be in danger if peace is reached and the elections are activated.

UU., Russian officials propose the peace plan, place the “work work for cooperation”

Earlier this month, Trump’s envoy For Russia And Ukraine Keith Kellogg said Washington wants kyiv to celebrate the elections, possibly for the end of the year, as soon as a peace agreement is negotiated.

Zelenskyy replied that the Ukrainians were alarmed by such statements.

“It is very important that Kellogg comes to Ukraine. Then he would understand people and all our circumstances,” said Zelenskyy, in comments to The Guardian.

Other American politicians asked Ukraine to have their elections on time last year.

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Ukraine defenders say that postwar elections would be a much better option, but the elections offer Russia the opportunity to sow chaos.

“The only person who benefits from the elections before there is a lasting peace agreement is Putin,” said Andrew D’Arieri, a member of the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council. “Kremlin loves elections, not in its own country, but in other places, because it provides the opportunity to destabilize things.”

The former president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, also said that the Ukrainian authorities would have an election before the end of the year. “Writing it, on October 26 of this year,” he said in a recent interview.

But Davyd Arakhamia, the parliamentary leader of the People Party Party server from Zelenskyy, denied Poroshenko’s statement in a telegram post.

“During the martial law, the elections are impossible to sustain (…) Leaders of all parties have agreed that the elections will not be held up to at least six months after the end of the martial law.” Arakhamia said.

Poroshenko, president of Ukraine, from 2014 to 2019, who accumulated his fortune in the confectionery business, lost to Zelenskyy in his commitment to a second term. Seen as a possible contender for a rematch, Poroshenko previously opposed to hold elections before the conclusion of the war, arguing that Putin would use propaganda to undermine them.

But some have begun to question whether Zelenskyy could survive a re -election campaign.

Zelenskyy saw the approval rates shot at 90% at the beginning of the war in 2022, but submerged about 50%, according to a survey by the International Institute of Sociology of kyiv (Kii) of 2,000 surveyed in December.

“Zelenskyy’s perspectives to win the elections depend on the exact terms of the high fire, namely their public perception as a ‘victory’, ‘honorable raffle’ or ‘defeat’,” said Ivan Gomza, a politics professor public at the Kyiv. Economy School. “The cessation of hostilities is barely plausible in 2025. In addition, the elections require preparations … The elections are very unlikely up to at least 2026.

“It is unlikely that Zelensky wins the elections, if they were held in Ukraine, because his popularity fell significantly at the end of 2024,” said Rebekah Koffler, an expert in American intelligence born in Russia. “The war exhausted the Ukrainians and many have realized that you cannot focus for Ukraine.”

“The Russians, in turn, will almost surely execute clandestine operations to influence the elections to choose a pro-ruso candidate,” Koffler added.

Zelenskyy has also lost his main benefactor of the first elections, Ihor Kolomoyski, who was accused both in the United States and Ukraine for money laundering and bank fraud charges.

The main opponent of Zelenskyy is expected to be Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four -star general and the current ambassador to the United Kingdom. Zelensky and dismissed Zaluzhnyi as head of the Armed Forces last year in an important and politically unpopular shake. Zaluzhny had affirmed that the war with Russia had reached a dead point at the end of 2023.

Putin saw him as “great competitor”, but he is still an “adversary” of the United States as Ukraine negotiations advance, says Leavitt

Russia, although insists on the elections as part of the negotiations, is not likely to win a more favorable Ukrainian Ukrainian government in any result of an election.

“All favorites in the elections will be pro-western and proeuropean candidates who want They differ, “said D’Ali.

“The only people who approach Zelenskyy in the surveys are people like General Zaluzhnyi, with patriotic credentials really established in Ukraine,” said Henry Hale, a professor at George Washington University who specializes in public opinion in Ukraine. “Any of the pro-ruse forces really doesn’t have much standing there.”

Zelenskyy prohibited 11 political parties on ties with Russia in 2022. Many of the Nation’s pro-russian legislators have fled on the border, and four parliamentarians were stripped of their Ukrainian citizenship over the ties with Russia in 2023.

Some legislators who belonged to prohibited political groups simply changed party affiliations. And in front of an increasingly lower coalition without elections to replace the members of the Parliament that change their jobs or join the military, Zelenskyy has been forced to trust members of the Parliament who previously formed part of the pro-russia parties now full for votes.

Hale predicted that if elections were held before a peace agreement had been signed, it would increase the re -election possibilities of Zelenskyy.

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“Although there are many people in Ukraine who do not believe that he has done the best job by managing the war effort, there is still a very strong impulse in the population to meet them like the symbol of resistance.

“Many people who are really criticism of him would still vote for him, just not to risk changing horses in Midstream,” Hale continued. “If you get a peace agreement, you have credible security guarantees, then, then they have choices, and you may see a really strong competition.

“And I think at that time it becomes a very open question if Zelenskyy would win or not.”