The extreme right looks for electoral advance as Germany hesitates

A wave of political tide crashes by Germany. That is what the right -wing nationalist alternative for Germany (AFD) the party firmly believes.

It is labeled as “radical”, “racist” and “antidemocratic” by opponents. The German National Intelligence Service says that the party is “unconstitutional.”

But if the surveys are correct, the AFD will become the second largest political force in Germany after this Sunday’s elections.

That would be a great change in tectonic plates, not only at home but throughout Europe.

Why is AFD so important, could you ask? The holidays in populist law have grown in support in much of Europe.

The AFD also points to Donald Trump. They share their message “anti-dialing”, hard and migratory and fuel in favor of fossils. They are also anxious to stop sending weapons to Ukraine and decalize tensions with Russia.

The Trump administration immediately supports them, publicly, to the outrage of many Germans.

The point is that Germany is not any other country.

It is the largest economy in Europe, one of its most influential nations. He still carries the weight of his Nazi past. Together with the United Kingdom and France, it is one of the three greats that helped shape and ensure the liberal order and the defense structures of Europe after World War II and the Cold War.

Never before in the postwar Germany has had a hard -right -wing party, while on the cusp of being identified as a threat to the Federal Republic and its liberal constitution.

The influential leader of the opposition of France, Marine Le Pen, whose party is also considered extreme right, has distanced himself from the AFD on the European stage, apparently judging his positions and the ethno-nationalist reputation too radical.

The long -standing assumption between the main current at home and abroad had been that the dark past of Germany immunized him against any serious flirting with the extreme right.

But there is a lot in this choice that makes observers change their vision of Germany. And I will return to the AFD, which strongly denies its “extremist” label.

The Germans have suffered a kick in the intestine, in terms of self -image and the international reputation of their country.

For years, they got used to being admired and envied, such as the economic power of Europe.

Advantage through technologyTranslating approximately “progress through technology”, it was an advertising slogan for Audi cars in the 1980s. For decades he encapsulated Germany’s reputation in international imagination.

The country was seen as modern, dynamically and technologically advanced. And the automobile industry was one of the main arteries that pumped wealth to the economic heart of Germany.

But fundamental defects have now been exposed in the German economic model.

Is widely seen as broken (Broken): Depends too much on the outdated and energy -intensive industries such as combustion motor cars and chemical industry.

Critics question the lack of forecast from Germany or the ability to move with the times. Where was the serious investment in R&D? In Big Tech? In ai?

To worsen things, during Angela Merkel’s 16 years as Chancellor, he resigned in 2021, Germany depended more and more:

• Exports to China
• Cheap gas from Russia
• An American defense umbrellas.

All this left Germany very exposed.

Donald Trump now says that Europe can no longer rely on the support and security guarantees of the United States.

China has advanced rapidly in the automobile industry and dominates electric car technology. So far less, the need for German imports.

And the large -scale invasion of Russia of Ukraine left Germany fighting alternative energy sources. Buying Natural Liquid Gas, from the United States and others, is expensive, which leads to financial tension in many German companies that intensify energy.

The result: Germany’s economy is slow and sticky. As the largest member of the eurozone currency, that has an impact far beyond its borders. European allies are frustrated.

The German army is also a source of irritation (that puts it politely) among European neighbors. Berlin is a key power in the Defense Alliance, NATO. Donald Trump’s return to the White House means that Europeans must provide more of their own capabilities.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised a tense – A turning point: for the exhausted army of his country, after the large -scale invasion of Russia of Ukraine.

However, Germany’s army remains in a weakened state, less ready for battle, tell us that three years ago.

Partly due to their donations to Ukraine.

Germany, after the United States, has been the largest donor of military aid for Ukraine and most political parties in Germany are in favor of continuing to support kyiv.

AFD takes a very different posture. “Paz” is one of the most frequent signals you see in its manifestations.

They want an approach with Russia, immediately stop sending weapons to Ukraine and use resources instead to build the German armed forces for home protection.

More than 4,000 bridges in Germany are broken or in a doubtful state. I could barely believe my ears when I heard that for the first time. But it is the figure reported in a country whose infrastructure has collapsed in silence for years due to chronic, public and private underestimation.

The punctuality of the train in Germany is frightening, worse than in the United Kingdom, which will astonish the tired British travelers.

Digitization is also unfortunate. The reception of the mobile phone is irregular outside the cities and it is still known that people use faxes!

But even if the recent German governments had wanted to invest more, they faced legal limits in spending.

A debt brake was written in the German Constitution after the financial crisis of 2008/9, with a restriction to the new debt of no more than 0.35% of GDP, except in times of national emergency.

The Germans no longer trust their politicians.

They had seen the government spend spiral at home and abroad. The euro currency, which depends on Germany, almost collapsed.

But what seemed to the voters an anchor of financial stability, now, now it seems to many, a blockade for economic growth.

The ranks on the debt brake reform were the drop that filled the collapse of the outgoing coalition of Germany, and the rapid elections this Sunday.

But, be careful with the new German government: breaking the debt brake will not be a feat. He needs a two -thirds majority in Parliament to change the German Constitution.

Migration is a big problem in Germany. And a great voter of votes for the AFD.

It is far from being the only country that cares about migration levels in Europe, but only Germany received more than one million asylum applicants, mainly from Syria and Afghanistan, during the immigration crisis of Europe in 2015/16.

The country has also opened its doors to 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees.

Many Germans were proud of what they called their “welcome culture.”

But a series of attacks by asylum applicants from the Middle East and Afghanistan has reunited a debate about how open German borders should be.

There have been stabbing, an assault of Machete, a car that attacks civilians in a Christmas market and again in a recent union demonstration in Munich, where another small child was killed.

The AFD insists that it is not racist or anti-migration, and that anyone is welcome in Germany if it arrives by legal means, get a job, contribute to society and respect local norms and culture.

The party says that I would immediately deport all immigrants who commit a crime, and anyone who arrives here illegally.

That position was applauded by numerous AFD supporters with whom I spoke in the demonstrations in the period prior to Sunday’s elections, including young women who told me that they no longer felt safe in the streets.

It is also worth noting that in May, a German court found that “at least an important part of the AFD” believed that anyone with migrant inheritance was not “adequate German”, even if they had German citizenship. He concluded that the AFD was aimed at “granting German citizens with a history of migration only a legally devalued status.” This goes against the German Constitution.

Concerned to lose voters to the AFD about the issue of migration and borders, the center of Germany to the left and the center to the right have moved to the right in their rhetoric. This is a victory for the AFD, whatever the result of the elections.

Even if it becomes the second largest force in Parliament, as predicted, it is very unlikely to reach the next German government.

The political system after World War in Germany is designed so that no party can master the Parliament as the Nazis did after they voted for the first time in 1933.

The construction of coalitions is the name of the game. And there has been a call Firewall in its place since the end of World War II, a consensus between crossed parties to keep the right to the right outside the government.

The AFD insists that it is conservative and libertarian, not a radical and right force.

He points out his growing support base, both in the west and eastern Germany and among younger voters. It accuses opponents of trying to shut it up, close it and keep it out of power. That, he says, is undemocratic.

Elon Musk took the headlines throughout Europe when he proclaimed in December that only AFD can save Germany.

Most here still insist that their country should be saved from AFD.