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The supporters hold the signs that read “Chancellor” and “Merz” during the final campaign event of the Party of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany in Munich, on February 22, 2025.
Alexandra Beier | AFP | Getty images
The conservative alliance composed of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its brother party The Christian Social Union (CSU) will lead Germany again after the federal elections on Sunday, ending a period of political instability that has persecuted Berlin for months for months .
The central-right CDU-CSU won 28.6% of the votes, with the far-right alternative for Germany (AFD) in second place with 20.8%, while the Social Democratic Party on the left (SPD) was in third place with 16.4% of the vote, according to Preliminary results of the federal return officer.
The results, which will be confirmed later on Monday, mean that the CDU-CSU candidate Friedrich Merz will probably be installed as the next German chancellor, assuming control of the SPD Olaf Scholz After his three -part coalition he collapsed at the end of last year.
“We have won it because the CDU and the CSU worked well together and we prepared very, very good for this election and also to take care of the government responsibility,” said Merz on Sunday when exit surveys emerged, indicating the victory of the alliance.
Friedrich Merz, union candidate for Federal Chancellor and Federal President of CDU, joins the television round “Quadrell” in the Bundestag electoral campaign.
Michael Kappeler | Image Alliance | Getty images
The victory for the Christian alliance ends a period of uncertainty in the largest economy in Europe, although there could now be weeks of political trade of horses as a coalition government forms.
The most likely result is that the CDU-CSU forms a bipartisan coalition with the SPD, a coalition formula proven and tested in Germany, although a tripartite coalition composed of CDU-CSU, SPD and Greens is also a possibility.
Merz had already ruled out forming any government alliance with the AFD Populist AFD anti -immigrant party, which saw its best electoral result on Sunday.
Merz “clearly has a mandate to form a new government,” David Mcallister, a CDU politician and a member of the European Parliament on Monday, on Monday.
“It will be a very good chancellor because I know him for many years, we can absolutely trust this man and we hope he can recover confidence, he can restore confidence in Germany, that is his main task and I wish him all the best for that.”
Of the ‘debt brake’ to Trump
European markets They have had a somewhat silenced reaction to the result of the elections, although that of Germany Dax The stock market index opened around 0.4% higher on Monday.
But despite this respite, the new German government has much to deal with.
The political division in Berlin has been seen as an undesirable distraction by investors that warn that Germany must overcome a series of challenges. These include an economic discomfort that has taken over the country in recent years, with its car -oriented economy and the export that is vulnerable, as well as a thorn debate about immigration and integration that has seen the tastes of the increase in Prominence and popularity.
The wider role of Germany in European geopolitics is also a matter of debate, particularly given the current war in Ukraine, and when the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and his threat of commercial tariffs represent another potential wind against .
Volkswagen ID.7 Electric cars are seen in the lead plant of the Volkswagen electric fleet (VW) in Emden, Germany, February 18, 2025.
Carmen Jaspersen | Reuters
Economists are considering what a government led by CDU-CSU means for the economy of Germany and tax reform after the long debate and division over Germany. “Debt brake“A fiscal policy that is enshrined in the Constitution of Germany, limiting how much debt the government can assume.
Deutsche Bank’s strategists pointed out that while the result of the elections “can reduce the risks of particularly frantically frantic coalition conversations, it still confirms a continuous anti-establishment trend that has been visible both in Germany and in Europe in general.”
“The result marks the lowest voting for the two main parties, even when participation (82.5%) was the highest since at least 1990. and leaves centrist parties below a constitutional majority of 2/3, With the CDU // CSU, SPD and Greens in a little less than 66% of the seats.
Fiscal policy has proven to be a persistent political error for Berlin, with arguments between the parties to the extent to which the debt brake guarantees responsible spending or limits growth and investment.
Both arguments could be debatable points for an economy that has been flirting with the recession for months.
‘Less bad news’
“The less bad news first: Germany will get a new government that can end in the long period of weakening political uncertainty once you have agreed its agenda,” said Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Bank chief economist, in a note on Monday.
“We hope that a bipartisan coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD of the central left promulgate some supply reforms in favor of growth, relieve the regulatory and fiscal burden on companies in some way and look for a more rational immigration and less immigration inefficient and expensive energy policy, “said Schmieding. However, he questioned the extent to which populist parties such as AFD and left (Die Linke) could combine and block changes in the German Constitution, such as loosening the debt brake rule.
Other economists noticed that the left (Die Linke) has pointed out that it is actually in favor of reforming the debt brake rule and that it will not interpose in the path of such movement.
“Although the AFD and the left together seem to have the number of seats necessary to form a locking minority for constitutional amendments and reforms, which require a two -thirds major Reform Debt-Regla de brakes, “economists said in the Barclays cross-asset realech team in a note on Monday.
“Therefore, although it is still at risk, we believe that it is more likely that a new coalition government reforms and relieves the fiscal policy,” they said in comments sent by email.
