Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Electoral campaign posters for (from R) Free Democrats (FDP), the Left party (Die Linke), the Social Democrat (SPD), the Green Party (Die Gruenen) and the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) online in Berlin January 20, 2025.
John Macdougall | AFP | Getty images
Berlin-centrist parties fought in Germany’s elections on Sunday, with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of former Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz registering his worst result As many voters moved to the right and left.
Speaking in Berlin shortly after the exit surveys were published on Sunday night, Scholz said it was a “bitter” defeat.
His SPD party obtained only 16.4% of the votes, according to Preliminar FiguresWhile the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its affiliate, the Christian Social Union (CSU), ensured most of the vote, with 28.5%. Although this means that the conservative alliance won the elections, it was still its second result of first place and under the 30% brand closely.
However, the parties that have traditionally invented political stripes recorded significant profits, since the voters went to the extremes. As expected widely, the extreme right -wing alternative Fuer Deutschland (AFD) doubled its participation of votes from the last elections to just over 20% on Sunday, which makes it the second largest force in the Parliament of Germany.
This strength “will serve as a reminder for centrist parties to quickly address the multiple challenges of the country, or in front of a potentially even greater electoral agitation in the next elections,” said Carsten Nickel, managing director of Teneo, in a note on Sunday evening.
The Linke party of the extreme left benefited from an unexpected support of support, challenging the expectations to achieve 8.8% of the votes, compared to 4.9% in the 2021 elections. Only a few weeks ago it was not clear if the party would even cross the 5% obstacle necessary to enter Germany’s Parliament.
“The end, extreme to the right, extreme left, clearly reached about 30% and this has made the entire German political landscape more fragmented,” Carsten Brzeleski, Macro Macro Chief in ING in ING, said Monday, on Monday, Monday on Monday In Berlin.
This could announce a “new normality” for Germany, he added.
Impulse of migration debate
The success of the marginal parts can be attributed greatly to the very disputed migration issue, according to Holger Schmieding, Berenberg chief economist.
“The polarizing debate on migration has benefited from political extremes,” he told CNBC. “The most important thing is that it has energized the minority of Germans who want open borders for non -guest migrants and refugees. These voters have come in mass to die, the only part completely in favor of that,” Schmieding said in comments sent by mail electronic.
Germany has been involved in a burning debate about migration throughout the electoral campaign, since several parties used violent attacks in Germany committed by people who deportee or with foreign history to promote stricted immigration laws.
The head of CDU-CSU and the probable chancellor, Friedrich Merz, earlier this year, got into hot water to boost a non-binding motion in the migration policy, which had led, through Parliament with the support of the AFD. This marked the first time in the post -war history of Germany that a majority was achieved with the help of the extreme right.
Two other factors at play are demography and geographical, according to Brzeski of ING.
“Die Linke and AFD did extremely well on social networks and made a very explicit campaign in social networks, which worked well,” he said, suggesting that the parties reached a younger audience there, a strategy that has For a long time it has been key to the AFD.
Data It shows that the two games are especially popular among the younger voters, and Die Linke became the most popular match among young people aged 18 to 24, winning around a quarter of their vote, followed by the AFD in second place . Die Linke was also the biggest party in a Simulated choice of children under 18.
Geographically, Brzeski pointed out the generalized success of the AFD in East Germany, where the party insured The vast majority of direct mandates. The extreme right party has long been taking advantage of the economic insecurity and anti-establishment feeling in the region, Experts told CNBC earlier this month.
Perspective for political extremes
Looking towards the future, observers now see the risk that extreme parties continue to gain strength unless the incoming centrist government makes changes.
The mainstream of Germany “needs to act together and address key issues”, such as migration and the state of the country’s economy, Schmieding warned, saying that political extremes could continue to grow in popularity.
If this happens, for the next federal elections there is no guarantee that the parties be excluded from the government, he said. Although the AFD is the second largest game in Germany, all conventional groups so far have said that they would not enter a coalition with them.
Brzeski also urged caution about the ability of a centrist government, which will probably be composed of a CDU-CSU and SPD coalition, to keep the most extreme parties at bay. Historically, these parties that govern together, known as the “great coalition”, have actually strengthened the extreme parties, he explained.
“This puts the next coalition really in an even stronger test. So if they are wrong, it will really be the AFD, winning the next elections,” Brzeski said.
