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The European Union and the Ukrainian flags fly in front of the Berlaymont, the headquarters of the EU Commission, for the third anniversary of the large -scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, 2025 in Brussels, Belgium.
Thierry Monasse | Getty Images News | Getty images
The return of President Donald Trump to the White House has completely changed the position of the United States on the support of Ukraine, which led European nations to consider new options to boost military support for kyiv.
Last month, the president of the United States blame Ukraine for starting war, Called to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a dictator – Even when Ukraine has been prevented from celebrating elections during the war since Russia’s invasion in 2022, and began unilateral conversations with Russia in Saudi Arabia, for the dismay of Ukrainian and European officials that were not included.
The tensions intensified last week after a televised explosive shock In the Oval office between Trump, the American vice president JD Vance and Zelenskyy. According to reports, the United States has stopped military support to Ukraine while an evaluation of the situation is carried out.
European leaders are gathering to be behind Ukraine In the middle of the support of the US. One of the mechanisms that Europe has at its disposal to invent the American support deficit is Act completely frozen Russian assets Held in the region.
What are the Russian assets and where are they maintained?
What could these assets be used?
There has been a lot of debate about the course of war on whether these assets could be used to support Ukraine. In June 2024, The G7 agreed in principle to issue $ 50 billion on loans to Ukraine that were backed by the profits generated by around 300 billion euros frozen Russian assets.
Since then, the European Member States have refrained from making a complete seizure of said assets due to concerns about legal and economic repercussions.
The recent climbing in tensions between the block and the United States has led the EU to explore a more aggressive action, Bloomberg reported. The idea would be for an international claims commission even to establish to demand repairs of Russia, and if they do not agree, to take them completely, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the conversations.
Who in Europe is in favor and against using these assets to help Ukraine?
Several EU figures have expressed their support for complete seizure, including the head of foreign policy Kaja Kallas and the Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis.
At the EU Foreign Affairs Council at the end of February, Kallas declared That work to reach an asset seizure agreement was “continuous” and that “eventually, especially in the situation in which we are at this time, we all come to the conclusion that our taxpayers should not be those who are paying for this. It should come from the country that destroys Ukraine, which is Russia.”
Also towards the end of last month, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Kingdom, David Lammy, told the British Parliament that “Europe has to act quickly, and I think we should go from freezing assets to confiscate assets.” Estonia and Poland They have also expressed their support to confiscate assets.
In statement Published earlier this week, after the reports that the US withdrew military aid, Estonia’s Foreign Minister press The sanctions imposed on Russia, a political decision must be taken on Frozen’s assets.
Nigel Gould-Davies, main member of Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) told CNBC by email that “many states of central Europe sympathize with the case of seizure, although they are reluctant to say it publicly in the absence of a common position in the EU.”
However, several states are apprehensive, and he particularly noticed Germany and France as “the main backups.”
This could be changing, With the FT report, both nations are open to discuss Asset of assets.
How would these assets be seized?
In theory, the 27 EU member states could unanimously agree to confirm the Russian assets and “Belgium Mandate to confiscate the assets,” said CNBC of Armin Steinbach, professor of Jean Monnet of Law and Econom’s Economy in the EU in Hue Paris.
The other option would be that Belgium separated the confiscation of assets if the EU sanctions expire without renewal, said Steinbach. However, Belgium seems unlikely to do it, as he has done reportedly He warned about the legal and economic risks that the seizure of assets is raised to the euro zone.
Steinbach also commented that it would be “morally convincing but legally difficult” for Europe to take Russian assets, since Europe is limited to taking countermeasures against the violations of the International Law of Russia, which must be “temporary” and “reversible”, according to international law.
However, “at the same time, Ukraine has a claim for damage against Russia to pay war injuries. The question is whether the EU could enforce this claim for damage to Ukraine to confiscate Russian assets,” said the professor.
He referred to a “creative proposal” in which Ukraine transfers his “claim of damage against Russia to the G7” that would later enforce this statement for kyiv “undertaking” against Russian assets. Steinbach said that “such transfer has never happened according to international law” and that the issue of immunity protection for sovereign assets also persists.
IISS ‘Gould-Davies said Extensive International Lawyers Studies He showed that “there is a safe legal path” for seizure, and that the fears of economic repercussions were exaggerated.
“When the assets froze for the first time, the moment when Russia lost access to them, there was no adverse impact on European economic or financial stability. There is no reason to think that markets, or individual creditors, would act if Russia permanently and formally lost these assets,” he said.
What happens now?
With the conversations to finish the ongoing war, and there is no current clarity about the potential result, Europe is still considering whether the seizure of Russian assets to help Ukraine could allow the purchase of additional weapons, or if these funds could help reconstruct the country.
David Roche, a veteran investor and strategist of Quantum Strategy, said that, as part of his discussions with the United States, Russia will demand that the assets be not frozen and return to help boost their economy.
“There is no doubt that Putin will want them back,” he told CNBC on February 26, adding that Putin will seek to make a deal with Trump, which he could press to Europe so that unnecessary assets stored on European land are stored in Europe.
Russia also expressed it It would retaliate if their assets are seized.
The withdrawal of the United States support and the urgent need for Europe to intensify defense spending “makes the seizure of Russian assets even rational and urgent” Gould-Davies said, asking: “Why not take free money from the aggressor?”
