How Trump’s threats have revived the Liberal Party in Canada

If I had asked the Canadians a few months ago who would win the country’s next general elections, most would have predicted a decisive victory for the Conservative Party.

That result does not look so safe now.

Following the threats of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, against Canada, the liberal party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has increased in the surveys, reducing the leadership of two digits that his conservative rivals had constantly remained since mid -2023.

The dramatic change in the country’s political landscape reflects how Trump’s tariffs and his repeated calls to make Canada “State 51” fundamentally altered the priorities of Canadian voters.

Trump’s rhetoric has “away all the other issues” that were the most important thing for Canadians before its inauguration on January 20, says Luc Turgeon, professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.

He has even managed to relive the Trudeau once deeply unpopular, whose approval rate has increased by 12 points since December. The prime minister, of course, will not be in power for much longer, after having announced his resignation at the beginning of the year.

On Sunday, its liberals will declare the results of the leadership contest to determine who takes over a party that directs a precarious minority government. The new leader will have to make two immediate decisions: how to respond to Trump’s threats and when to call the general elections. The response to the first dilemma will surely influence the second.

A federal election must be made on October 20 or before, but it could be called as soon as this week.

Surveys indicate that many Canadians still want a change at the top. But what that change would be like: a liberal government under a new leadership, or a complete change to conservatives, is now not a assumption of anyone, says Greg Ly, president of the innovative research group based in Toronto, who has been surveying Canadians in their changing attitudes.

“Until now, it was a burst for conservatives,” he tells the BBC.

This is because the Central Party led by Pierre Poilievre, has been effective in its messages on issues that have occupied the Canadian psyche in recent years: the growing cost of living, housing inhalation, crime and a tense medical care system.

Pailievre successfully linked these social problems with which he described Trudeau’s “disastrous” policies and promised a return to the “common sense policy.”

But with Trudeau’s resignation, and Trump’s threats to the economic security of Canada and even his sovereignty, that message has become obsolete, says Lyle. His survey suggests that the majority of the country is now afraid of Trump’s presidency and the impact he will have on Canada.

Trump’s 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports to the United States, some of which have stopped until April 2, could be devastating for Canada’s economy, which sends three quarters of all its products to the United States. The officials have predicted up to one million job losses as a result, and Canada could go to a recession if the property tax persists.

Trudeau left no doubt how seriously he is taking the threat, when he told journalists this week that the reason declared Trump for US tariffs, the flow of fentanyl through the border, was false and unjustified.

“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that will facilitate annexation,” warned the prime minister.

“In many ways, it is a fundamental issue that covers about the survival of the country,” says Professor Turgeon to the BBC. The best position to defend Canada against Trump, therefore, has become the key question in the next elections.

Conservatives are still ahead in the surveys, and the last averages suggest that 40% of voters support them. The fortune of the liberals, meanwhile, have been revived, and their support rises a little more than 30%, more than 10 points from January.

The liberals have tried to highlight the similarities between the conservative leader and the Republican president. In the leadership debate last week, the candidates referred to Pailievre as “our little version of Trump here at home” and said he was looking to “imitate” the president of the United States. An attack advertisement of the Liberal Party juxtaposed clips of the two using similar phrases as “false news” and “left radical”.

However, there are clear differences between the two politicians, in terms of style and substance. And Trump himself has minimized any parallel, telling the British magazine The Spectator in a recent interview that Pailievre “is not enough.”

Even so, surveys suggest a conservative support slide. A recent survey of the National Surveyor Angus Reid indicates that Canadians believe that the liberal leadership leader Mark Carney, is better equipped to deal with Trump on tariff issues and commerce than Poilievre.

The former central banker for Canada and England is promoting his experience in the treatment of economic crises, including the 2008 financial accident and Brexit.

And the change in political mood has forced conservatives to recalculate their messages.

If the choice is soon called, the campaign will take place at a time when Trump’s threats have inspired a fierce patriotism among Canadians. Many are Bicothand American goods in their local grocery stores or even canceling trips to the US.

Professor Turgeon says that this “flag recovery” has become a key issue of Canadian politics.

The conservatives moved away from their slogan “Canada is broken”, which Lyle says he risked “antipatriotic”, “Canada first”.

Conservatives have also redirected their attacks on Carney. Before Trump’s tariffs, they made ads saying that it is “like Justin” in an attempt to link it with Trudeau. But in recent weeks, conservatives have begun to deepen the leality of Carney to Canada.

Specifically, they have questioned whether I had a role in moving the Brookfield Asset Management headquarters, a Canadian investment company, from Toronto to New York when he served as president.

Carney has responded that the company had left for the time that decision was made, but the company’s documents reported on the CBC public broadcaster show that the Board approved the move in October 2024, when Carney was still in Brookfield.

The measure, and Carney’s mistake of his participation with him, was criticized by the Editorial Board of the National newspaper of the Globe and Mail, who wrote on Thursday that Carney must be transparent with the Canadians.

In more general terms, the document wrote: “Each party leader must understand that Canada is entering a period of uncertainty of years. The next prime minister will have to call the confidence of Canadians to direct the country where he needs to go, but may not want to go.”

Given the anxiety that reverberate among Canadians, Lyle says that any ambiguity about Carney’s loyalty to the country could still be harmful to him and the liberals.

Every time the elections arrive, and whoever wins, one thing is safe: Trump will continue to influence and remodel Canadian politics as he has done in the United States.