Tariffs could cause ‘volatility and conflict’: business leaders

London – The commercial rates of President Donald Trump are a great concern among American and international business leaders, and industry’s titans warn about problems ahead.

Speaking in CNBC’s Converge in vivo In Singapore, the founder of Bridgewater, Ray Dalio, warned about “struggle” between countries over duties.

“The tariffs will cause struggles between countries … I am not necessarily talking about military. But think of us, Canada, Mexico, China … there will be fights, and that will have consequences,” he said, speaking with Sara Eisen from CNBC on Wednesday.

Trump 25% rates In aluminum and steel imports it entered into force on Wednesday, with the EU, Australia and Canada between the regions and the affected countries. US markets have been in agitation About duties this week.

Dalio said the current environment is “an extension of the patterns of history”, which gives Germany of the fifties as an example.

There was an increase in tariffs to increase income and an accumulation of the country’s national base, as well as a debt debt at that time, Dalio said. “Be a nationalist, be a protectionist, be a militarist. That is the way in which these things operate,” Dalio said. “The problem is really the confrontation of all this,” he said.

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff described the reciprocity between countries as “good” if they are treated in the same way. But he said that “what and how” are “very important.” “If you can’t put what and how in a consistent, clear and significant way, then you could end with high levels of volatility and conflict,” Benioff said, speaking in converge.

Alec Kersman, managing director and head of Asia-Pacific in Pimco, warned about an increase risk of recession due to rates. There is a “maybe of 35%” that the United States enters a recession this year, Kersman told Martin Soong from CNBC in Converge Live, above the Pimco estimate in December 2024 of 15%.

In spite of that, said Kersman, the scenario of the base case of Pimco is that the US economy will grow from 1% to 1.5%, “a fairly significant decrease” of its previous projections.

Kersman advised market participants to be “more patients” in terms of investment rebalancing. “At this time there is a lot of noise in the markets, and you want to give it three to six months before doing that action,” he said. Tariffs will create “more different winners and losers”, and add: “The trend of globalization is being redirected, and there are no more universal laws of how capital will behave.”

The potential of an increase in domestic spending was also mentioned by the president of Alibaba, Joe Tsai. China’s national consumption “needs an impulse”, thanks to “rates and geopolitics,” Tsai said in converge live, the effective average USE It is ready to reach 33%, according to Nomura estimates.

“Look at the Chinese consumer. They are very, very healthy. The general balance of the home is very, very strong. He is seeing more than $ 20 billion of bank deposits by the homes. Therefore, they are standing outside waiting to spend,” Tsai said.

Tsai said he is “half full” about Trump’s commercial policy. “The Trump administration will want to have more American companies that do business in China,” he said. “Eventually, you know, tariffs are a negotiation tool maybe, but at some point things will improve,” he added.

Europe quickly took reprisals against steel and aluminum rates, saying that it would impose Counter-tariffs at 26 billion euros ($ 28.33 billion) for the value of US goods from next month. “Tariffs are taxes, they are bad for businesses and, worse for consumers, they are interrupting supply chains, they bring uncertainty to the economy,” said the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, journalists during a press conference on Wednesday.

Amala Balakrishner of CNBC, Anniek Bao, Katrina Bishop, Holly Ellyatt and Sam Meredith contributed reports.