Trump could be willing to make a “big commercial problem” with China: Mahbubani

Although the president of the United States, Donald Trump, is in theory “very negative in China”, in practice, he may be willing to make “a big commercial problem” with the country, according to the veteran diplomat of Singapore, Kishore Mahbubani.

In fact, it is more likely that the Trump administration negotiate an agreement with China, compared to the Biden Administration, said Singapur’s former ambassador to the United Nations.

While Mahbubani said Trump “should be more anti-china,” if the Trump administration can assure Beijing that it will not press for independence in Taiwan, it could soften negotiations in a commercial agreement between the two countries.

“If Trump can make China open his market, accept more US exports and possibly even invest in the United States, then it is possible to have a commercial win-win agreement,” he said.

“The Chinese clearly want to have an agreement with the United States. They do not want this contest to continue,” Mahbubani added.

Speaking on the same panel, David Adelman, former United States ambassador to Singapore, said “China has an important participation in American economic success.”

Adelman said that the United States is the largest market for Chinese products and that the country’s consumer remains the most powerful in the world. But Chinese consumers are growing richer, which presents an opportunity for American producers.

In commerce, Mahbubani believes that there is a “structural change of power to Asia”, referring to keynote speech Made by the Vice Primer Minister of Singapore, Gan Kim Yong in Converge Live.

Gan had said that it is projected that Asia’s economy will expand from about 50% of the world’s gross domestic product to approximately 60% by 2030.

Adelman caught attention to the Southeast Asian region specifically, describing it as mainly a “collection of neutral countries.” He pointed out that these are countries that have enjoyed military support from the United States while they have strong economic ties with China, which is the largest commercial partner for all Southeast Asian countries.

These “non -aligned” nations have “enjoyed the benefit of American security” protection while “taking advantage of China’s economic growth,” said Adelman.

But Trump and, to a lesser extent, the president of China, Xi Jinping, seem to be pushing the nations of Southeast Asia to choose between the two powers, giving rise to “a very interesting dynamic,” said Adelman.

However, over time, “the United States and China will realize that you are interested in treating and working with regions such as Southeast Asia”, instead of forcing them to choose a team, said Mahbubani.

“So everyone wants to keep their options open. And that is the world of tomorrow that will see. That everyone realizes that the best way to survive is to keep their options open,” he said.