Optimism is growing around the United Kingdom’s economy amid the US commercial disputes.

London-some investors are expressing a growing optimism about the economic perspectives of the United Kingdom despite the long structural weaknesses of the country, such as its neighbors in the European Union deepen your commercial dispute With the United States.

That optimistic tone was not reflected in the messaging of the Bank of England, like that He kept stable interest rates last Thursdayciting greater geopolitical uncertainty and indicators of volatility of the financial market. However, the economic growth of the United Kingdom – warm at best during the last three years – Finally, it is expected to retire a bit in 2025, with the Bank of America analysts who predict an expansion of 1.4%.

Inflation is still It is expected to cool Back near the goal in the coming months, the labor market is loosening but still robustAnd the United Kingdom government has a specific approach – Sometimes controversial – To support growth and reduce national deficit.

Sanjay Raja, chief economist of the United Kingdom in Deutsche Bank, said that, in a recent customer trip to the United States, he noticed a “sensation of incipient optimism” throughout the United Kingdom that is not seen at some time.

The key factors included a turn towards deregulation and focus on a higher capital expenditure, the potential of a solid commercial agreement with the EU in next year and an expectation of the United Kingdom “will remain in the ” good books’ of the United States as a commercial war begins,” Raja said in a note earlier this month.

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has He expressed a will To avoid the United Kingdom of blanket or specific fees, with reinforced expectations after the United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer made a friendly trip To the White House in February.

“Talking about a trade in the United States also arose in customer conversations, and there was a greater optimism that the United Kingdom could be saved from direct and generalized rates,” Raja said.

Some felt that “structural growth could be increasing after a constant decrease from the global financial crisis,” he continued, while a Wide European impulse to increase National Defense spending could benefit companies in the United Kingdom. Concern points for investors remained The mass sale of January in the United Kingdom government debtFiscal head and the sustainability of spending cuts, observed slit.

The United Kingdom may have been saved the worst from Trump’s rhetoric so far, such as its Threat of 200% tariffs on EU alcohol imports – But it is not totally immune from Washington’s protectionist impulse.

Gabriella Dickens, an economist at the Ax Investment Managers G7, said the United Kingdom still faces a success due to the New American tariffs on steel and aluminum. The United Kingdom exported a total of £ 370 million ($ 479.7 million) in steel to the United States in 2024, according Trade Group UK Steel, which represents 9% of total steel exports from the United Kingdom by value. Aluminum exports from Great Britain to the US. UU. They were valued at around £ 225 million last year, The United Kingdom Aluminum Federation says.

The United Kingdom will also be affected by any slowdown in global trade, even if this leads to a weaker demand in its key partners, such as the EU, and if general uncertainty erodes the confidence of business and consumers, Dickens told CNBC.

“The feeling of investors can be promoted if the United Kingdom manages to avoid additional rates, particularly if commercial tensions increase with the EU,” Dickens said. In the improbable case that Trump continues with his previous threat of 25% tariffs in the EU, a “impulse of material” would be provided to the United Kingdom, since manufacturers would probably seek to relocate, he said.

The United Kingdom could still avoid more rates, since it does not have a large commercial surplus with the United States and most of that is based on services. It has already pledged to increase its defense expense as part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), avoiding much of Trump’s anger with other nations.

“None of these has saved the United Kingdom from steel and aluminum rates,” Dickens added.

Lindsay James, Quilter Investors investment strateg Reciprocal tariffs of the United States It must be announced in early April.

“The idea that VAT is some kind of tariff seems to have strengthened in the White House, stopping the United Kingdom once again at a considerable risk of entering the cross of the United States commercial policy,” James told CNBC.

“While reality is likely that reality is misrepresented by the White House to obtain a negotiation advantage, the United Kingdom is not yet in the clear and, if Donald Trump’s demands in Ukraine are something to happen, any future commercial agreement will probably have a great price.”

James added that, while the government was improving the foundations of the United Kingdom’s economy in the long term, growth remained in a weak trajectory in the short term, with companies affected by higher costs last year’s budget and continuous problems with a “greater and sick staff.”

“While the Securities Market (from the United Kingdom) has so far benefited from its defense perception, a modest initial assessment and a strong performance of very represented sectors such as oil and gas and finance, the divergence of the economy’s performance could lead to the large limit index continuing to overcome national actions,” he said.