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The bottles and the medical syringe are seen with the Novo Nordisk logo shown on a screen in the background.
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Novo NordiskThe hopes of announcing a new era of obesity treatment with its Cagrisema drug have been questioned after a series of essay results sent actions.
The main results of a redefinir-2 test in late stage released Earlier this month, he showed that the next -generation Cagisema of Novo helped obese or overweight patients with type 2 diabetes to lose 15.7% of their weight for 68 weeks, compared to 3.1% with placebo. This was below the percentage of previously previously predicted weights.
A previous test in the late stage published In December, the medicine helped obese or overweight patients with one or more comorbidities, but not type 2 diabetes, to reduce their weight by 22.7% after 68 weeks, also below the 25% expected.
Both results eliminated the significant value of Novo’s shares, since the hopes of investors to find an alternative greater than the company’s existing Wogovy injection and the bait of their opponent Eli Lily, both GLP-1 medications, were discouraged.
The time Darling Stock has now dropped around 50% of its maximum 2024.
“The feeling towards these guys is as negative as ever,” said Emily Field, director of the investigation of European pharmaceutical products in Barclays, CNBC by phone on Wednesday.
Novo Nordisk
“The reaction of shares felt disproportionate, but there are simply no buyers who compensate for sellers,” said Field, noting that some coverage funds from the United States were now shortening the actions, either due to the results of the trial or about broader concerns about high valuations in the weight loss drug industry.
A next generation obesity treatment
Cagrisema is a combination of Cagrilintide, a nascent form of weight loss treatment known as amiline analogue, and semaglutida, the active ingredient in Wagovy.
The medicine was expected to offer a better weight loss for diabetes patients, who generally have a more difficult time to throw pounds in existing GP-1 treatments, but the weight reduction of 15.7% resulted in the redefine-2 trial disappointed.
“We had seen the potential for cagrisee to demonstrate a higher weight loss for Zepbound given the amiline component; however, the delta of the cavise of the patients obese to the obese diabetics is very similar to Sema and Zepbound,” said Bofa Global Research in a note last week, and added that the results “were not enough to rebuild the competition.”
There is a very, very short approach at this time. People are simply not thinking about the broader potential.
Emily Field
European Pharmaceutical Research Head in Barclays
Meanwhile, questions are around the tolerability of Cagrisema, with less than two thirds of patients who progress at the highest dose after 68 weeks. Novo said last week that Cagrisema was “well tolerated” and that the most common adverse effects were gastrointestinal, but were “slight to moderate and diminished over time.”
“Investors are looking for treatment options that are better in class and will ensure Novo’s place in the obesity medication market,” said Soren Lontoft, a pharmaceutical capital analyst at Sydbank, to CNBC by phone on Tuesday. “We are not sure that cagrisee is better in class.”
However, an upcoming redefine 4 study, which will be launched in early 2026, could provide a more color on the efficacy of the medication during an extended duration and a more flexible dose, something that Lontoft said it could distinguish it.
“That could produce superiority,” said Lontoft.
Expand weight loss treatments
The weight loss industry remains divided over the broader applications and the results of obesity drugs beyond the total weight reduction. In a separate note last week, Bofa said that “a little more cautious in differentiation” in the treatment of obesity and diabetes after the latest Cagrisema results had grown.
“There is a very, very short approach at this time. People are simply not thinking about the broader potential,” Field said.
However, Lontoft pointed out the need for a wide range of treatments to address both associated obesity and health risks, such as cardiovascular disease, sleep apnea and liver disease, areas in which medications have already been shown advancing.
“It’s about addressing different needs in this market,” he said. “Companies that can address these different needs better, in combination with a significant production capacity, will take most of this market,” he said.
Other companies expect to get involved in the market, which is estimated to be more than $ 100 billion by 2030. Earlier this month, the Swiss Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche reached an agreement worth up to $ 5.3 billion to develop Danish biotechnology Zealand Pharmaceutical‘s Amiline analogue Obesity candidate for drugs.
However, investors and patients will have to wait at some time for such products to be launched with the CEO and president of Zealand Pharma, Adam Steensberg, narration CNBC that expects Petrelintid to reach the market around 2030. Novo Nordisk, meanwhile, said he hopes to request the regulatory approval of Cagisema in the first quarter of 2026.
Even so, the company has some way to go to recover part of the previous exaggeration on the drug. When asked if investors would recognize it as one of several possible alternatives to existing heavyweights, Soren was cautious: “No. but I think they will eventually do it.”
