Türkiye’s protests are much more than the fate of the mayor of Istanbul

Under the acre smell of tear gas in the night air in Istanbul, there is an indication of something else: a smell of panic by the leader of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

One of his rivals has been put behind bars, so far, very familiar.

But the imprisonment of Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, suggests that President Erdogan is shaken, and may have gone too far. The Republican Popular Party (CHP) of the mayor, which is calling great crowds in the streets, certainly awaits it.

Ekrem Imamoglu, always turned out intelligently, even when he prepared to be arrested, he is the main rival of the increasingly authoritarian leader in Türkiye. It could well replace it in the presidential elections to be held by 2028, assuming that it is free to dispute them.

But this is much more than a row about the fate of the mayor of Istanbul, even if it is charismatic.

Freedom and democracy have constantly eroded in Erdogan’s era. Many see this as an opportunity to call stopping and stopping the decrease in total autocracy, if it is not too late.

And they leave every night challenging the riot police and their tear gas and rubber gas bullets, the prohibition of demonstrations, the closures of roads and bridges, and the risk of detention.

More than 1,000 people have been arrested so far, in just 5 days, and counting. That is an indication of how easy it is to be arrested here.

Türkiye claims to be a functional democracy, and to the letter, it is. There are elections. Electoral participation is usually high: Turks appreciate their right to go to surveys and broadcast their tickets. The vote is largely fair, the day itself.

The problem is what happens far from the voting columns.

Opposition politicians can be imprisoned. The intimidated critics. The arrested protesters. The media are largely controlled by the Government. A tweet ridiculing the president could take him to a cell. By the time the Survey Day arrives, there is a pro -government coverage tsunami and the opposition struggles to take a look.

Ekrem Imamoglu is the type of politician who can cut all this and reach voters. He is an expert in media and has been elected mayor of Istanbul three times. He is now accused of embezzlement, bribes and directing a criminal organization.

If he is convicted, he could be prohibited from being standing in the presidential race. He is already appealing a previous conviction and a sentence of two years in prison, for insulting electoral officials.

Türkiye insists that their courts are independent and simply follow the law. Human rights activists here and independent analysts, make fun of that idea.

The campaign group, Human Rights Watch, said the mayor’s arrest, along with another 100 municipal and political officials, is a “politically motivated movement to quell legal political activities.” In the past he has criticized “decisions politicized by the courts” in Türkiye.

In a publication about X, where he has 9.6 million followers, Imamoglu said that the case against him was “a black spot in our democracy”, adding “I keep high. I will never lean.”

That is what Erdogan, 71, can be afraid, an opponent who is younger, at 53, also attracts conservative Turkish voters and is ready for a long fight.

So what happens now?

The protests could gain impulse and continue extending. That will present a serious challenge to Erdogan. How long before their strongly armed security forces take even stronger energetic measures? How long before someone loses his life in a protest? There is a rupture point for each strong man regime, and can come with a single bullet.

The opposition intends to maintain pressure and manifestations.

But after his two decades at the top, Erdogan still has many loyal followers. It controls practically all the power levers and seems determined to endure. He will be depositing in the manifestations that are seized, over time.

The president and his ruling party will wait for protesters to get tired and worry again about crushing inflation (39% in February) and the increasingly less and smaller value of the Turkish lyre, instead of freedom of expression and democracy.

The next few days and weeks will prove the power of permanence of both sides. But if there are lessons to learn from street protests in other authoritarian nations, a rapid advance seems unlikely.