Albanese faces winds before the May vote

When Ciclón Alfred crashed along the east coast of Australia earlier this month, the government’s electoral plans also flew.

With the hope of capitalizing on some good rare news about interest rates, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was about to announce an April voting date. Instead, he had to pivot and focus on responding to the natural disaster. It was, a Labor Minister told me, a decision made of him by “an act of God.”

You could say that it has been a matter of his government: great plans often derailled by unpleasant surprises: to test global economic conditions and a crisis of life cost that is mistreating many countries, foreign wars and complicated geopolitics, growing national divisions and now giant storms.

Albanese, who leads the Labor Party, wants a second mandate to restart.

On May 3, Peter Dutton, a conservative who directs the Liberal Party, the dominant member of the so -called coalition with the National Party of Australia, which only two years ago indicated that the survey indicated that it was deeply unpopular.

But the race between them is now so tight and the emergence of independents or minor parties in such a way that many expect a hung parliament.

So how has he unraveled for Prime Minister Albanese?

His victory in May 2022 was seen as a new beginning after nine years of conservative government.

Climate action was great on the agenda, as well as addressing the cost of living and restoration of the country’s leadership stability.

But the legacy he looked for his government was in indigenous affairs. He opened his speech of Victoria reiterating a promise to celebrate a historical referendum about an indigenous voice to Parliament, an advisory body that would inform the government about issues that affect the people of the first nations.

Albanese spent most of 2023 campaigning for a vote of “yes.” This was the time, he expected that the people of the first nations obtained constitutional recognition, finally catching up with other British colonies, and that Australia would begin to repair what many see as a very broken relationship with the aborigines and islanders of the Strait of Torres.

But the proposal was decisively rejected, leaving many indigenous people feeling disappointed and betrayed. Albanese also stayed licking his wounds after a harmful campaign.

Some critics blamed the confusion and erroneous information of why around 60% of Australians voted “no.” But while Albanese was campaigning for the vote of “Yes”, the opposition leader Peter Dutton campaigned for “No”, attacking Albanese for spending money on the referendum while intensified a crisis of living cost.

“(Dutton) not only won in the referendum, but also won to position the Labor as the Government that is not completely focused on the problems that matters to Australia,” says Kos Samaras, political consultant and former Labor Strata.

During the mandate of Albanese, interest rates have become 12 times (and cut once, in February), inflation rose after the pandemic, the country’s housing crisis deepened and the Australians felt increasingly stretched.

Although the prime minister would blame many of those feet problems of the previous coalition government, voters want to know who is better located to deal with all of them now.

In Victoria’s speech by Anthony Albanese in 2022, he said that Australia was “the largest country in the world.” However, Australian voters question more and more if that remains true, and perhaps the most important thing, if the politicians of traditional parties are those who can solve it.

So, although many are disappointed with work, this will not necessarily translate as a vote for Dutton’s coalition at the polls.

Support for minor and independent parties reached record levels in the previous elections, and is expected that this time similar. If none of the parties reaches the magical number of 76 seats in the House of Representatives, which the survey after the polls paint as unlikely, the independent candidates could be the creators of kings of any future government.

If that happens, Australia would be another page in a story that develops throughout the world: voters deprived of their rights that seek more radical solutions and vote for change. In many places, this is a real threat to democracy when people stop trusting the system.

But while Australia faces the same challenges as other parts of the world, some peculiarities in their electoral system so far have kept against more radical changes that we have seen in other countries, such as the United States, France and Germany.

All experts agree that mandatory vote is a key factor in the political stability of Australia. In the 2022 elections, just under 90% of the population voted, much higher than the average OECD participation of 69%. The fine for not voting in a federal choice is a mere to $ 20, but there is a sense of duty here to leave and vote.

What that means is that politicians do not have to mobilize their bases: participation is a fact, it is just to push their narrative. When the vote is optional, there is a tendency for special interest groups to become too influential since those who are less compromised decide not to cast a vote. In addition, if everyone, regardless of their policy, education or wealth, will vote, tend to attract the result towards a more representative center.

“The elections (from Australia) are decided in the middle,” says the main election analyst Antony Green. “That means transmitting their message through those people who do not pay much attention.”

The other great stabilizer for Australia, experts say, is the preferential vote, where voters effectively add their candidates in order of whom they want to win. That is why in recent years the greens have emerged to the left and a nation to the right, but still, the work and coalition dominate. Experts say that preferential vote attends the effects of polarization and forces the two main parties to appeal to people who do not necessarily vote for them first to receive their next preferences, which also helps moderate politics.

While the campaign will focus on problems close to home, candidates would be fools when ignoring winds against winds against winds against.

During the presidential elections of last year, few analysts with whom I spoke seemed to think that a White House of Trump would massively affect Australia, this relatively small and distant democracy.

But five months feel like a lifetime in today’s policy. There is no day without Donald Trump to reach the headlines and the Australians are tune in to see.

With Trump’s obvious contempt for long -standing alliances, as well as the constant conversation of tariffs and commercial wars, all this plays a role in the fears of the Australians about their place in the world, and what is more important, the future of what could be said that it is its most important diplomatic and military relationship.

Peter Dutton argues that it would be much better than Albanese to deal with Trump. But there are doubts that someone really knows how to handle this new administration: politicians of all stripes worldwide are feeling their way with the best way to manage their relationship with the United States.

With Albanese shooting the initial weapon today, the Australians have just over a month of intense campaigns to help them determine who they want to take them over the next three years.

Although the work management of the former Cyclone Alfred has improved its possibilities (the approval ratings of the Prime Minister have increased to its highest level in 18 months, the surveys in recent months have indicated a Dutton administration.

It is still incredibly close, and the Government of Albanese faces the unvoyable perspective of being the first that cannot win a second term since 1931.