Can Vietnam play the new import taxes of the USA?

Countries around the world are prepared for the so -called “day of release in the United States” by Donald Trump! Next week.

The deadline of the president of the United States to impose reciprocal tariff 25% import taxes.

Vietnam could be particularly vulnerable to Trump’s last save. It has a large commercial deficit with the United States and has been a beneficiary of companies that move factories in China to avoid measures announced during its first term in office.

While some countries have responded in Washington, Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, has suggested that he can adopt a more diplomatic approach.

Speaking in January, he said he was willing to visit Trump’s Mar-a-Lago house in Florida and “golf all day” if “benefits” his country, laughing in the room.

Would that work?

Trump has previously said that Vietnam was “worse than China” and “almost the worst abuse of anyone.”

But he has not yet directed specifically to Vietnam with tariffs, although it has the third largest commercial deficit with the United States, after China and Mexico.

Analysts say that Vietnam is going well by getting involved with Washington, but their efforts may not be enough to avoid most Trump’s rates plans.

“Vietnam’s prime minister seems to be taking a page of the book of (former Japanese prime minister) Shinzo Abe, who built a close personal relationship with Trump about his love shared by golf,” said Stephen Olson, a former American commercial negotiator.

“However, I would not expect any special Vietnam treatment from a policy point of view. Personal relationships are important for Trump, but in this case, I think his desire to seem hard with trade will win.”

Vietnam has said that it does not plan to “restrict trade” with the USA., Although currently gravels some imports there.

The Government said this week that it will allow Spacex, which is the property of Trump Elon Musk’s nearby ally, operates its Starlink satellite Internet service in the country.

Some analysts see this as one of the measures that Vietnam has taken to avoid being beaten with US tariffs.

Hanoi also said that he will reduce tariffs in several imports from the United States, including energy and cars, a movement aimed at “improving commercial balances.”

Less than two weeks arrived after the Vietnamese and American companies signed more than $ 4 billion (£ 5.4 billion) in agreements, in areas that include oil and gas exploration.

Steve Norris, of the risks of consulting control, said that “Vietnam is taking care to avoid any movement that indicates that any non -cooperation on commercial problems.”

This strategy is in line with its foreign policy approach, known as “bamboo diplomacy.” Like the outbreaks of plants that balance with the wind, Vietnam hopes to be adaptable to foreign pressures.

“If the United States increased pressure on Vietnam, the government could respond with offers to facilitate investments in hospitality and casino industries, make advanced machinery purchases and, capture the moment, consider access to rare land minerals in Vietnam,” Norris said.

A great factor that works against Vietnam is the concern about the influence of China.

Vietnam was one of the biggest beneficiaries of China’s US tensions during Trump’s first mandate.

In 2018, he hit China with tariffs, which caused some companies to rethink where they did their products. Some chose to change manufacturing to Vietnam.

This has led to an increase in Vietnam’s exports to the United States, with Chinese companies that have transferred the production there contributing to that figure.

The former commercial negotiator of the United States, Wendy Cutler, said that Vietnam has become a “destination for the great Chinese investment.”

Although the United States remains the largest export market in Vietnam, China is its largest provider of goods, which represents more than a third of imports, according to the latest official data.

Chinese companies were also behind almost one in three new investments in Vietnam last year.

“These are huge red flags for Trump. My expectation is that Vietnam at some point will be affected by rates,” said Olson.

However, tariffs in Vietnam could affect US companies such as Apple and Intel technology companies, and Nike sportswear giant, who have moved China’s production lines to Vietnam.

A recent survey of the US Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam found that most American manufacturers expect to say goodbye to staff if tariffs are imposed.

The president of the United States believes that the levies will boost the economy of their country encouraging more companies to make goods in the US. And bring billions of dollars of taxes.

But many economists have warned that it could improve the prices of US consumers and negatively impact global trade.

Washington is also worried about the so -called “trans ships”: Chinese products that pass through Vietnam on their way to other countries.

American officials have been “stressing silently to Vietnam who must reduce their commercial surplus over time and combat trans transport of Chinese goods through the country,” Norris said.

The Vietnam Prime Minister has said that his administration can “manage the relationship with the United States.”

Now that the Southeast Asian nation has reduced some tariffs on US assets, they can be more attractive to Vietnamese consumers, which increases the United States trade participation with the country.

And then there is the golf: playing a game with Trump had worked for the late Japanese leader Shinzo Abe.

Abe and Trump established a friendship, which included many golf games for several years. Friendship possibly helped Abe to ensure tariff exemptions for Japan’s critical automotive industry at that time.

For now, it is not clear if Vietnam would really give him a golf diplomacy.

The real test will arrive next week, when a new Trump tax list is ready to enter into force.