China already ahead of us in the humanoid robot race, analysts say

To American technological giants such as Tesla and Nvidia They are running to develop humanoid robots, emphasizing their importance for the future economy. But analysts warn that they already run the risk of losing China.

The so -called humanoid robots (artificial machines with intelligence designed to resemble humans in appearance and movement) are expected to provide a range of use cases, such as filling the work of the industrial and services sector.

Investors’ emotion surround the robots has been increasing in medium Increased mentions of technological leaders such as Jensen Huang de Nvidia, who marked the beginning of “The Age of Generalist Robotics” earlier this month by announcing a new Technologies portfolio for the development of the humanoid robot.

In the manufacture of robots themselves, the Tesla Humanoid Robot project, Optimus, seems to be leading in the United States, With CEO Elon Musk announcing plans To produce around 5,000 units This year.

While Musk’s ambitious plans could give him an advantage over US competitors such as Apptronik and Boston Dynamics that have not yet reached the mass market, he will face a tough competition from a family source: China.

Unitree Robotics, based in Hangzhou, last month briefly sold two humanoid robots to consumers on the electronic commerce platform JD.com, as Through local. Meanwhile, the Robotics startup based in Shanghai Agibot, also known as Zhiyuan Robotics, has matched Optimus’s goal to produce 5,000 robots this year, according to the Post in the morning of southern China.

As Chinese electric vehicle companies as Byd begins to overcome Tesla’s growth And undermining their prices, experts say that a similar dynamic could be developed in humanoid robotics.

“China has the potential to replicate its disruptive impact of the EV industry in the humanoid space. However, this time the interruption could extend far beyond a single industry, potentially transforming the workforce itself,” said Reyk Knuhttsen, a semi -analysis analyst, an independent research and analysis company that specializes in semiconductors and IA.

For example, Unitree launched his humanoid G1 robot For consumers in May with an initial price of $ 16,000. In comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates that the cost of sale of Tesla’s optimus gen2 humanoid robot could be around $ 20,000, but only if the company can climb, shorten its research and development cycle and use China’s profitable components.

Unitree gave a great impact on the robot space in January when 16 of its highest performance H1 humanoid robots joined a group of human dancers to celebrate THE NEW YEAR LUNAR In a demonstration Transmitted on national television.

But there are signs that China’s progress in robots goes much further. The February Research Note of Morgan Stanley found that the country has led the world in patent presentations that mention “humanoid” in the last five years, with 5,688 patents compared to 1,483 of the United States.

Large players like Xiaomi And EV manufacturers, such as Byd, Chery and Xpeng, are also involved in the humanoid robot space.

“Our research suggests that China continues to show the most impressive progress in humanoid robotics, where new companies benefit from established supply chains, local adoption opportunities and national government support degrees,” said the note.

Beijing has increasingly supported space, with the government departments that promote its development. In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology GUIDELINES EMITTED For space, asking for “scale production” by 2025.

According to Ming Hsun Lee, head of automotive and industrial research of the Gran China in Bofa Global Research, China sees humanoid robots as an important industry due to their potential to mitigate the imminent shortage of labor.

“I think that in the short term, from three to four years, we will see humanoid robots initially applied in the production lines to compare some workers, and half of the period, we will see them gradually extended in the service industry,” he said.

Musk predicted that he would have more than 1,000, or a few thousand, Optimus robots working in Tesla in 2025. according to Chinese state mediaEV manufacturers such as Byd and Geely have already deployed some of Unitree humanoid robots in their factories.

Lee said that a greater adoption will coincide with a “very fast” decrease in component costs, and also points out that China has about 70% of the supply chain for these components.

According to a semi -health report earlier this month, the Unitree G1, “the only viable humanoid robot in the market,” is completely decoupled with the US components.

The report warns that China is the only country positioned to harvest the economic awards of intelligent robotics systems, including humanoid robots, which “raises an existential threat to the United States, since it is composed of all capacities.”

“To catch up, US players must quickly mobilize a solid manufacturing and industrial base, either nationally or through allied nations … for Tesla and similar companies, it can be advisable to begin to reinforce or ‘friends’ ‘their component and manufacturing supply to reduce China dependence,” said the semantics’ Knuhttsen.

Bank of America analysts predicted in a research note this month that the deployment of humanoid robots will accelerate rapidly, helped by the development of AI, with global annual sales that reach 1 million units for 2030 and 3 billion humanoid robots in operation in 2060.