China seeks Central Asia as commercial risks are assigned in other places

The growing commercial war with the United States has promoted Beijing to expand its ties with Central Asia further, analysts say, while companies backed by the State seek to replace imports from the United States and redireous exports.

In what seemed to be an attempt to minimize rates of rates, Chinese state media on February 10 -The day Beijing slapped an initial 10% tariff on American energy imports-informed a trip led by the State to Kyrgyzstan, where dozens of Chinese corporate representatives traveled to the neighboring country to explore association opportunities.

“The current commercial war is expected to boost China to deepen economic cooperation with the countries of Central Asia,” said Yunis Sharifli, a member of the Global Project of Southern China, which includes “diversifying export routes, increasing participation in regional connectivity projects and expanding infrastructure investment.”

China has established itself as a leading business partner and foreign investors in the five nations of Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tayikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, a block seen as a key entrance door for its Belt and Road initiativean important infrastructure program announced by President Xi Jinping during a Official visit to Kazakstan in 2013.

In a significant sample of commitment, Beijing organized the first summit in person with leaders of Central Asia in 2023, where Xi promised to improve bilateral investment and commercial links. The leaders of the coalition are expected to curl up in June in June The next summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

However, the United States has been marginalized for a long time in the region, despite Washington’s objective of absorbing the region in its sphere of influence as indicated in a strategy document of the State Department entitled “American Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Advance of sovereignty and economic prosperity.”

But his efforts have fallen short.

“Central Asia remains a diverse region that receives very little attention from the United States,” said Curtis Chin, former United States ambassador to the Asian Development Bank and senior member of the Milken Institute.

“More than half of the battle for influence is appearing in person (and) this is something that China and Chinese companies, often backed by the State, know well, and Americans can be difficult to match.”

The bilateral trade between Central and China Asia, the largest commercial partner in the region without a coastline, has constantly increased in recent years, reaching a maximum record of $ 94.8 billion last year. This surpassed the Central Asia trade With the US, which hit just over $ 4 billion Last year, according to official data.

China’s exports to the region are mostly machinery, electronics, manufactured goods and vehicles, while Central Asia mainly supplies natural resources, critical minerals and agricultural products to China, in what Sharifli described as a “complementary commercial relationship.”

In particular, bidirectional trade between Central and China Asia, while in a stable rise, is still at relatively lower levels compared to the total Trade of goods between China and the United States at $ 582.4 billion.

Kazakstan, a vast nation of steppe with rich energy and agriculture resources, led with $ 43.8 billion last year, ahead of its Objective to reach $ 40 billion In the annual bidirectional trade with China by 2030, a promise made by the president of the country, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in 2023.

Kirguistán then arrived with $ 22.7 billion in commerce with China, then Uzbekistan with $ 13.8 billion, Turkmenistan with $ 10.6 billion and Tayikistan with $ 3.86 billion.

China’s imports from Kyrgyzstan increased more than 30 times by 2024 and more than 60 times in the first two months of 2025. Kyryguistan and China officials at a meeting earlier this month discussed the increase in bilateral trade until $ 45 billion for 2030 as well as plans to accelerate the construction of the new control point and the opening of new flights, according to reports from the local media of Kyrguistan.

In retaliation against the imposition of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, of 20% of new tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing has supplied additional duties of up to 15% on coal, natural gas, Cotton, agricultural products of the United States

Chinese companies could “duplicate cotton imports from Uzbekistan and other nations of Central Asia,” said Daniel Balazs, a researcher at the S. Rajaratnam International School. Although the contribution of cotton imports in the region may not coincide with that from the United States, it could “mitigate any impact,” he said.

China obtained 35% of its cotton imports from the USA.

The manufacturer of Chinese electric vehicles Byd last month made its incursion in Kazakstan, making it the third central Asia market where the car manufacturer has been established, following Uzbekistan and Tayikistan.

The five nations of Central Asia have maintained a neutral posture In the Ukraine conflict, refraining from supporting Kyiv or Moscow, a movement seen For some as a cautious distancing from Moscow.

Echoing that feeling, Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, said, “The countries of Central Asia will also look more and more towards China, and far from Russia, for their commercial and investment needs.”