SHOCK MARINE LE PEN VEDICTO ROCKS FRANCH to the right

“Incredible.” That was the only word pronounced in regards to Marine Le Pen when she left a room in the Paris room this morning.

He left the Court early, just before hearing that he was forbidden to run for a position for five years after being convicted of embezzlement of EU funds, almost surely he rules out of standing in the French presidential elections of 2027.

Without even waiting for the judge to pronounce all the details of the sentence, the head of the National Rally knew that his political goose was cooked.

There would be no pending appointment. The bar in running for a position was real and immediate.

A four -year prison sentence, of which two will be suspended, will be waiting for appeal.

But his political plans are dead.

The disbelief of Le Pen can be better excused, perhaps, in the context of the moment.

A consensus had almost been established throughout the political world of France that this final sanction by the court could not, in the end, not take place.

It wasn’t just the followers of Le Pen who said it. His enemies agreed, from Jean-Luc Melenchon at the far left to Prime Minister François Bayrou at the Center and Justice Minister Gérard Darmanin to the right.

Everyone said Marine Le Pen was a figure too important to be withdrawn from the political scene in the pen of a judge’s pen.

All sought justification for the legal argument. There was no requirement for the judge, Bénédicte de Perthuis, to order that the immediate inelegability will postulate for a position. The judge had latitude. Mrs. of Perthuis would take into account the national context, they thought, and the affront to democracy if a favorite for the presidential elections of 2027 were inhebrada of the race.

But all were wrong. The judge said the law was the law.

In fact, the law had recently been hardened, by the same politicians who now complain about their application, to make the penalty for the misuse of public funds very severe. Well, said the judge in so many words, now that politicians absorb their own medicine.

Maybe Marine Le Pen was naive by not predicting this result. Certainly it seems that his National Rally Party was not singularly prepared for it.

Then, when they meet in an emergency session after the verdict, the party leaders are in a dilemma.

Do they continue as if there were still a possibility that Marine Le Pen runs in 2027?

In theory there is still a (small) possibility. She has already launched an appeal. The appeal could be accelerated and taking place at the end of this year or early 2026. A verdict would continue in spring.

The appeal hearing could result in a shorter period of inelegability, or eliminate it completely, in which case it could still run. But the possibilities should be considered thin.

Or, they should continue with Plan B, that is, by appointing the 29 -year -old party Jordan Bardella as de facto, the man who will run in the place of Marine Le Pen?

That could be a more realistic evaluation than is coming. But resorting to Bardella too fast would be indecorously. And anyway, not all at the party are fans.

Behind Marine Le Pen, everyone could join. Behind Bardella, not so much.

On this, and in so many other questions, the consequence of the political earthquake is not clear.

What will be, for example, the effect on the RN vote?

In the short term, we can expect a protest and an impulse to support the party. Because? Because what has happened fits so well into the RN narrative that populist law is a victim of the “system.”

No one is likely to vote for the RN to keep it against Marine Le Pen for illegally financing its party using EU Parliament funds. Everyone knows that all French political parties have resorted to similar command methods in the past.

Similarly, her “draconian” punishment, which is forbidden to defend the presidency, will be interpreted as an honor badge: the proof that she is only facing the powers they are.

However, in the long term, the impulse may not be so powerful. The truth is that Marine Le Pen is a great asset for the RN. This huge, hardened, sentimental woman, lover of cats, hard, suffered by battle, is stopped by her supporters, who feel they know her personally.

Jordan Bardella is also a popular figure, but at his age it is difficult to see him filling his shoes. With Marine Le Pen out of the image, the RN loses much of its appeal.

What is certain is that many possible candidates in the wing of the French right, such as former Interior Minister Bruno Retilleau, would see a great opportunity for themselves in a bardella candidacy.

The other stranger is revenge.

Marine Le Pen is still a member of the National Assembly, where he leads a block of 125, the largest in Parliament. Until now, he had not used that considerable block to try to demolish the government of the besieged Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, who fights despite not having a majority.

Those days can end.

Why should we make someone any favor now? They will say in RN HQ. Why not knock down the house?