François Bayrou inspires respect, but will he achieve it?

President Macron has turned to a fellow centrist, and one of France’s most experienced politicians, to lead the country out of its governing crisis.

But if François Bayrou commands much respect across the political spectrum, it is difficult to see how he can avoid the same pitfalls that brought down his predecessor Michel Barnier.

Appointed by the president as dictated by the Constitution, the prime minister can only function with the support of Parliament.

And with the National Assembly paralyzed by the same three-bloc impasse it has been in since July – with no change possible before July 2025 – it would be a reckless gambler to predict any degree of success for Bayrou.

Since Barnier’s fall a week ago – following a vote of no confidence supported by the populist left and right – Macron has consulted with a number of leaders in the hope of forming a new informal coalition to govern the country.

As Barnier was a man of the traditional right, Macron’s first instinct was to turn towards the traditional left, and efforts were initially focused on removing the Socialist Party (PS) from its alliance with the far-left France Insoumise (LFI).

However, as the condition of the PS was the adoption of left-wing policies that Macron was unwilling to approve, he was forced to limit his search to his own inner circle.

Bayrou has been a close ally of the president since before Macron’s first surprising election victory in 2017. In fact, Bayrou’s decision to stay on the sidelines as a candidate that year – and support the young man – created a vital dynamic behind the campaign. by Macron.

A well-known figure on the political scene for more than 40 years, the 73-year-old Bayrou has led the Modem party, which now has 36 deputies, since its formation in 2007. Before that, he was a leader of other centrist incarnations .

Its beginnings occurred in the Christian Democratic tradition of postwar politics, which generally supported, but remained at a distance from, the broader Gaullist component of the French right, led since the late 1970s by Jacques Chirac.

Bayrou, who was a classical languages ​​professor in his 20s, served as education minister from 1993 to 1997. But that was his last significant experience in government.

In 2017, he briefly served as Macron’s justice minister but resigned after being accused of a party financing scandal.

He was eventually acquitted of any crime, but many of his colleagues were convicted. And prosecutors have appealed against his acquittal, meaning he could still be brought back to court.

A practicing Catholic with six children, Bayrou’s political base is in the Pyrenean city of Pau, where he has been mayor since 2014. He speaks the local Béarnaise language and believes strongly in decentralization.

Bayrou has run for president three times, as the center’s standard-bearer. He came closest to victory in 2007, when he came third with almost 19% of the vote. He then angered future winner Nicolas Sarkozy by endorsing socialist candidate Ségolène Royal.

When the only possible means of survival for a minority government is to build bridges between left and right, Bayrou has the advantage of having acceptable relations with both parties.

His backing of Royal and then François Hollande in 2012 has created some confidence among socialists. But his views on debt – and the need to reduce it – help him on the right.

Curiously, his relationship with Marine Le Pen, of the populist right, is also respectful. In the past, he helped her raise the endorsements needed to run for president, arguing that it would be an affront to democracy if the leader of the most popular party was unable to run.

Similar sentiments led to support for Le Pen, when the prosecutor in her own party financing trial (a case similar to her own) recently demanded that she be declared ineligible for public office.

This may mean that Bayrou can avoid automatic censure from the populist right.

But Le Pen’s National Rally has also warned that if the new prime minister is “Barnier with another face” it will not hesitate to overthrow him.

According to veteran French political commentator Alain Duhamel, Bayrou is an independent and highly experienced figure who, although an ally of Macron, will not hesitate to exercise his power at the Hotel Matignon, his official residence.

“It won’t be easy to discipline him,” Duhamel said. “And it will tilt politics further to the left.”

France’s government crisis – the most serious of the Fifth Republic – has caused a major shift in power, away from the Elysée and towards the prime minister and parliament.

“The last time we had a situation like this was in the (post-war) Fourth Republic, when presidents had very little power,” said constitutional expert Christophe Boutin.

“Today again, power lies with groups in parliament, which may or may not unite around certain shared policies.”

Bayrou’s first task will be to name a new government, which could take many days. The composition will be an indication of whether he has managed to build bridges with the socialists, on the one hand, and Barnier’s conservatives, on the other.

But very quickly it will have to draw up a new budget for 2025 to replace the one abandoned by the Barnier government; and will immediately face possible rebellions from the left and extreme right.

The idea by some MPs of a kind of non-aggression pact – in which the government promises not to pass laws without a vote and MPs promise not to vote on a motion of no confidence – has been backed by Macron, who also said he did not want to dissolve the Assembly again before its term ends in 2027.

But critics say such an agreement would be a license for inertia, without reaching an agreement on issues as important as reducing the country’s growing debt.