India already has 1.45 billion inhabitants. Why do you want more children?

Last year, India overtook China to become the world’s most populous country, according to UN estimates.

With almost 1.45 billion people today, you’d think the country wouldn’t say anything about having more children. But guess what? The chatter has suddenly intensified.

Leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – have recently advocated for having more children.

Andhra Pradesh is considering offering incentives, citing low fertility rates and an aging population. The state too scrapped his “two-child policy” for elections of local bodies, and information They say neighboring Telangana will soon follow suit. Neighboring Tamil Nadu is also doing Similar noises, more exaggerated.

India’s fertility rate has fallen substantially: from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of two.

Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of two births per woman in 17 of the 29 states and territories. (A replacement level is one at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)

India’s five southern states are leading the country’s demographic transition and reached replacement level fertility much earlier than others. Kerala reached the milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993 and the rest in the mid-2000s.

Today, all five southern states have total fertility rates below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, fertility rates in these states match or are lower than those in many European countries.

But these states fear that India’s changing demographics, with different population ratios between states, will significantly affect electoral representation and state allocation of parliamentary seats and federal revenue.

“They fear being penalized for their effective population control policies, despite having better economic results and contributing significantly to federal revenues,” Srinivas Goli, professor of demography at the International Institute of Population Sciences, told the BBC.

Southern states are also grappling with another major concern as India prepares for its first delimitation of electoral seats in 2026, the first since 1976.

This exercise will redraw electoral boundaries to reflect population changes, likely reducing parliamentary seats for economically prosperous southern states. Because federal revenues are allocated based on state populations, many fear this could deepen their financial struggles and limit policymaking freedom.

Demographers KS James and Shubhra Kriti project that populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could gain more seats through delimitation, while southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh could face losses, further shifting political representation.

Many, including the Prime Minister Narendra ModiThey have hinted that changes to tax shares and the allocation of parliamentary seats will not be rushed.

“As a demographer, I don’t think states should worry too much about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between the federal and state governments,” says Goli. “My concern lies elsewhere.”

The key challenge, according to demographers, is India’s rapid aging driven by declining fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their population aging from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, says Goli.

This accelerated aging is linked to India’s unique success in decreasing fertility. In most countries, improving living standards, education and urbanization naturally reduce fertility as child survival improves.

But in India, fertility rates fell rapidly despite modest socioeconomic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that promoted small families through targets, incentives and disincentives.

The unintended consequence? Take Andhra Pradesh for example. Its fertility rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, Goli says. With growing debt and limited resources, can states like these support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?

Consider this. More than 40% of elderly Indians (over 60 years) belong to the poorest wealth quintile – the bottom 20% of the population in terms of wealth distribution, according to the latest report from the United Nations Population Fund United Nations (UNFPA). India Aging Report.

In other words, Goli says, “India is getting older before it gets richer.”

Fewer children also means an increase in the elderly dependency ratio, leaving fewer caregivers for an expanding elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India’s healthcare, community centers and nursing homes are not prepared for this change.

Urbanization, migration and changing labor markets are further eroding traditional family support – India’s strength – leaving more older people behind.

While migration from highly populated states to less populated states may reduce the working-age gap, it also raises anti-immigration anxieties. “Robust investments in prevention, palliative care and social infrastructure are urgently needed to care for aging people,” says Goli.

As if the concerns of southern states were not enough, earlier this month the head of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteer Organization), the ideological backbone of Modi’s BJP, urged couples to have at least three children to ensure the future of India. “According to demographic science, when growth falls below 2.1, a society perishes on its own. No one destroys it,” Mohan Bhagwat reportedly said in a recent meeting.

While Bhagwat’s concerns may have some basis, they are not entirely accurate, demographers say. Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that after a decade or two, continuing “with very low levels of fertility will lead to rapid population decline.”

A fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman leads to a slow and manageable decline in population. But a rate of 1.6 or less could trigger a “rapid and unmanageable population decline.”

“Fewer numbers of people will enter reproductive and working age, and this will be socially, politically and economically disastrous. This is a demographic process and it is extremely difficult to reverse,” says Dyson.

This is already happening in some countries.

In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared that the country’s record birth rate was a “national emergency” and announced plans for a dedicated government ministry. Greece The fertility rate has plummeted to 1.3half of what it was in 1950, prompting warnings from Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of an “existential” threat to the population.

But demographers say urging people to have more children is futile. “Given societal changes, including the significant reduction in gender disparities as women’s lives have become increasingly similar to men’s, this trend is unlikely to reverse,” Dyson says. .

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, facing a declining workforce, the key question is: who will step in to fill the void? Developed countries, unable to reverse declining fertility, are focusing on healthy, active aging, extending working lives from five to seven years and improving the productivity of older populations.

Demographers say India will need to significantly extend the retirement age and that policies must prioritize increasing healthy years through better health screenings and stronger social security to ensure an active and productive older population, a potential potential. “silver dividend”.

India must also take better advantage of its demographic dividend – the economic growth that occurs when a country has a large working-age population. Goli believes there is a window of opportunity until 2047 to boost the economy, create jobs for the working-age population and allocate resources for the aging. “We are only reaping between 15% and 20% of the dividend; we can do much better,” he says.