America’s new ‘wolf warrior’ discourse can cause lasting damage

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The author is the managing director of the New America think tank and a contributing editor to the FT

For nearly two decades, China followed the doctrine of “peaceful awakening”, a concept developed by government adviser and psychologist Zheng Bijan. It emphasized China’s desire to grow stronger and more prosperous by integrating into the international system, without posing a threat to other nations.

The strategy was successful: from the 1990s to the mid-2010s, China’s GDP and global influence rose dramatically. Xi Jinping, however, changed. Starting in 2017, he began a series of tactics that became known as “wolf warrior diplomacy”. Chinese diplomats became determined to protect China’s interests. And after a few years the Chinese government succeeded in undoing most of the favors that the years of peaceful upsurge produced.

In 2023, Xi stopped. But this aggressive development of China’s interests aggravated the world, caused mistrust and convinced many of China’s allies to hedge their bets on strengthening relations with the US.

Now, US president-elect Donald Trump and his merry band of tech titans are embracing their own version of Wild West talk, enhanced with a dose of Silicon Valley swagger. Its symptoms are high self-confidence, disregard for rules of any kind and willingness to cooperate with anyone anywhere as long as they promote their immediate interests.

Trump himself lives in a world of self-righteous people, who have a positive attitude towards his new friends from California. Many of the men who have created unimaginable power and wealth behind technological innovation assume that America’s superiority over other countries is reflected in the superiority of the technology sector over the rest of the American economy. It is the future, and they control it.

Such an attitude seems to actually cause a series of incidents and minor problems with other countries. However, based on China’s experience, the issue will not be this or that anger, but the accumulation of consistent statements and actions gradually entering the domestic politics of other nations, changing alliances with Multi-Lane.

As Xi has discovered, Beijing’s protests and bald assertions of privilege have strengthened the hand of China hawks in the US and the EU, and sowed suspicion among China’s former allies. The long-term damage to the relationship between Washington and Beijing was the result not only of Trump’s actions during his last term in office, but also of a profound change in the attitudes of former Obama officials who joined in the Biden administration and they built on a lot of anti Trump. – Chinese policies.

Pushing America’s technological supremacy, in particular, will empower those in other countries who are already seeking to challenge the dominance of America’s tech giants. The EU has been fighting the power and access of those companies for more than a decade. The new Trump administration, after Meta’s refusal to use artificial intelligence in the EU, is likely to force declarations that will give the necessary impetus to the creation of European joint technology and security markets.

In countries like Mexico, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Indonesia, even where the current leaders are friendly to Trump, there is a constant push from Washington to open markets and improve conditions. trade in favor of US companies will deviate. local entrepreneurs and exporters.

The US, like China in the age of the wolf warrior, will be notorious for violating and deviating from domestic and international laws. Demanding that everyone “pay” for the protection of the US military would look like a global racketeering racket.

The rising middle powers, which are now able to play a more independent role in the world than in the 20th century, are not willing to become refugees in the US-China rivalry. They will insist instead on asserting their own national interests in the same way that Trump wishes to put America first.

The George W Bush administration eschewed international law and order in favor of “meetings of the willing”. Since then, unilateralist Republicans have been followed by multilateralist Democrats who have spent years repairing the damage to US international relations and creating new informal alliances with covenants.

However, this cycle has eroded the trust and confidence of the US as a partner and partner. Add a heavy dose of arrogance and insults, and the damage caused by the next phase of American wolf warrior diplomacy could be permanent.